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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Monday September 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC.

Active and Developing Storms
IAN

Tropical Storm Ian is centered near 16.2N 80.3W at 25/2100 UTC or 190 nm SSE of Grand Cayman moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Seas are peaking near 12 ft near in just N of the center. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 12N to 24N between 73W and 85W. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to pass near or west of the Cayman Islands on Monday, and near or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Some strengthening is forecast tonight, followed by more rapid strengthening on Monday and Tuesday. Ian is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday and a major hurricane on Tuesday. Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Monday and Monday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

GASTON

Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 39.1N 37.5W at 25/2100 UTC or 410 nm W of Faial Island In The Central Azores moving W at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, and Gaston is forecast to become a post-tropical tonight and dissipate entirely later this week. Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of the Azores though tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Tropical Waves
There are no tropical waves present based on the latest analysis.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 19N16W to 09N25W to 1009 mb low pres near 14N36W to 08N41W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 16N between 34W-39W, and from 10N to 14N between 51W-62W.

...Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
Please refer to the Active and Developing Storms section above on Tropical Storm Ian, which is anticipated to impact the central eastern Gulf by the middle of the week.

High pressure ridging is noted across the Gulf, with a 1014 mb high centered over southern Georgia. Light to gentle winds are noted across the entire basin with 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, conditions will begin to deteriorate across the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday as Ian moves northward from Cuba as a major hurricane. Residents along the Florida west coast and Florida Panhandle need to monitor this system closely and review your hurricane preparedness plan.

...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Please refer to the Active and Developing Storms section above on Tropical Storm Ian moving across the basin.

Outside the main impacts of Ian, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds with 3 to 6 ft seas are present across the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate NE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft exist over the northwestern basin, while light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the southwestern basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Ian has begun to turn NW today, and is expected to intensify rapidly over the next 2-3 days. Ian will move to near 17.3N 81.5W tonight, reach near 19.2N 82.9W Monday afternoon as a hurricane, then move over western Cuba Tuesday morning, and reach near 23N 84.2W Tuesday afternoon, near 26.2N 84.4W Wednesday afternoon, then continue northward Thursday and inland across N Florida late Thursday through early Friday morning. Hazardous conditions will prevail in the NW Caribbean through Tuesday evening, before winds and seas gradually subside as Ian moves N of the basin.

...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Please refer to the Active and Developing Storms section above for details on Tropical Storm Gaston.

Scattered showers are entering the western Atlantic over the southern Bahamas related to the periphery of T.S. Ian. To the east, a stationary front extends from 31N58W to 27N72W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. Moderate northeasterly winds are noted north of the stationary front with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are around 4-6 ft in this area. High pressure extends across the central Atlantic with light to gentle winds. Seas are 7-10 ft, with the highest seas near 31N. In the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh winds are noted off the African coast, especially due to the influence of post-tropical cyclone Hermine. Showers are noted across the Canary Islands and off the coast of Morocco. Seas range from 5-9 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, northerly swell from Fiona will decay below 8 ft to the S of 27N tonight. Tropical Storm Ian is expected to intensify rapidly over the next 2-3 days. Ian will move to near 17.3N 81.5W tonight, reach near 19.2N 82.9W Monday afternoon as a hurricane, then move over western Cuba Tuesday morning, and reach near 23N 84.2W Tuesday afternoon, near 26.2N 84.4W Wednesday afternoon, then continue northward Thursday and inland across N Florida late Thursday through early Friday morning. Strong southeasterly winds occurring well to the E of Ian are expected to impact the waters W of 75W as Ian moves through the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday afternoon through Fri.

Forecaster: Evelyn Rivera-Acevedo, National Hurricane Center


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