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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Wednesday May 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.

Tropical Waves
A tropical wave is along 16N60W to 08N62W. The wave is moving west at 10 to 15 knots. TPW imagery has been showing enhanced moisture to the east of the wave. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 10N southward between 50W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W, from 22N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong in clusters across Central America from 84W to 91W.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W to 02N43W. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong is is east of 17W near the coast of Guinea. Scattered moderate isolated strong is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ, and from 05N southward, between 26W and 50W. Widely scattered moderate is from 03N to 08N between 10W and 26W.

Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
Upper level cyclonic wind flow with a trough covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward. A cold front is passing through southeastern Louisiana, to 27N90W in the north-central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico along 21N. The cold front continues inland to 24N100W. Precipitation: Scattered moderate isolated strong is from 20N to 22N west of 95W to Mexico.

An upper level trough passes through NE Florida to the Straits of Florida. A surface trough extends from 1011 mb low pressure centered near 31N80W, across northern Florida, into the Gulf of Mexico to 28N85W, and to 29N89W. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate is from 24N to 28N between 78W in the Atlantic and 86W in the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the Atlantic Ocean from 28N northward between 77W and 81W.

Broad surface troughing extends from mainland Mexico, eastward, to the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: Scattered to numerous strong covers much of the southern half of Honduras, and much of the southern half of the Yucatan Peninsula. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other rain showers are in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

The current surface trough in the NE Gulf of Mexico will move northward into Georgia today. A cold front across the NW Gulf of Mexico will stall and weaken into a trough through Thursday. A weak pressure pattern will prevail through Sunday.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Broad surface troughing extends from mainland Mexico, eastward, to the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: Scattered to numerous strong covers much of the southern half of Honduras, and much of the southern half of the Yucatan Peninsula. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other rain showers are in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

The Eastern Pacific monsoon trough passes through northern sections of Colombia, westward, beyond 07N80W in southern Panama. Precipitation: numerous moderate to strong is south of 10N from 78W eastward, including in the Gulf of Uraba. Scattered moderate to strong is south of 11N from 78W westward, in the coastal waters of Panama and Costa Rica.

Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will persist in the south central Caribbean Sea through Thursday night. Fresh winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras through Thursday. A tropical wave will reach the Windward Islands on Wednesday, and move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through Friday.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
An upper level trough passes through NE Florida to the Straits of Florida. A surface trough extends from 1011 mb low pressure centered near 31N80W, across northern Florida, into the Gulf of Mexico to 28N85W, and to 29N89W. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate is from 24N to 28N between 78W in the Atlantic and 86W in the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the Atlantic Ocean from 28N northward between 77W and 81W.

An upper level trough extends from 30N50W to the eastern part of the Dominican Republic. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is occurring on the eastern side of the trough, from 22N to 30N between 52W and 62W.

The current 1011 mb low pressure center that is east of Jacksonville Florida will move north-northeast today. The wind speeds and the sea heights to the east of northern Florida will diminish through tonight, as the low pressure center moves more to the north.

Forecaster: Mike Tichacek, National Hurricane Center/dbm


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