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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
8:15AM EDT (1215 UTC) Monday Mar 30 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America), Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC.
Active and Developing Storms
Gale Warning and Western Atlantic Large, Long-period Swell: A cold front extends from 31N53W to 25N71W, then stalls while it weakens across the central Bahamas offshore waters to the Straits of Florida. The front will reach from 31N46W to 27N55W to 21N64W this evening. Strong to near-gale force N to NE winds, and rough to very rough seas to 17 ft are expected behind the front. Winds will likely reach gust to gale force in the NE offshore waters N of 27N and E of 60W from this afternoon through early Tuesday morning. Thereafter, the front will stall and gradually weaken before it dissipates over the eastern offshore waters Tuesday night into Wed. Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the front, which will support the continuation of fresh to strong NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas across most of the offshore forecast waters through the end of the week. However, seas above 12 ft are forecast to subside Wednesday night.
Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the following websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.
East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the marine zone of Agadir near the coast of Morocco through 30/18 UTC. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on the website https://wwmiws.wmo.int
Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Senegal, then reaches southwestward to near 09N19W. Farther south, the ITCZ begins near 02N14W then continues to 00N27W to Brazil near 02S40W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 03S to 06N between 00W and 15W, and from 05S to 02N between 20W and 41W.
...Discussion: Gulf Of America (Gulf Of Mexico)
A weakening stationary front extends across the Florida Straits to the SE Gulf near 24N85W. Strong high pressure over the NW Atlantic waters, building in the wake of the front, extends a ridge basin-wide, which is supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds E of 90W and gentle to moderate E to SE winds W of 90W. Seas are mainly slight W of 90W and moderate elsewhere.
For the forecast, the tail of the front over the SE Gulf will remain stationary while weakening before dissipating later today. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds, and moderate seas over the E Gulf through Friday night. Over the western half of the Gulf, moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast, except for locally strong E to SE winds off the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night.
...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
A tight pressure gradient between a strong Atlantic ridge building in the wake of a front N of the area and a 1009 mb low over NW Colombia is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds along with moderate to rough seas over the NW, SW and central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere in the E Caribbean.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through Friday night, pulsing to near gale force at night through midweek. Surface ridging extending to the northern Caribbean will also support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Thursday night.
...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Refer to the Active and Developing Storms section at the very beginning about a gale warning and large long period swell generating very rough seas.
A cold front extends from 31N53W to 25N71W, then stalls while it weakens across the central Bahamas offshore waters to the Straits of Florida. Strong high pressure building behind the front supports strong to near gale-force NE winds from the southern Florida seaboard to 53W along with rough to very rough seas. Ahead of the front, a weak surface trough with scattered to isolated showers prevail. Otherwise, a 1040 mb high NE to the Azores Islands extends a ridge to the eastern Atlantic subtropical waters and supports fresh to near gale force NE to W winds and rough to very rough seas to 14 ft N of 22N and E of 30W.
For the forecast west of 55W, the front will reach from 31N46W to 27N55W to 21N64W this evening. Strong to near-gale force N to NE winds, and rough to very rough seas are expected behind the front, likely reaching gust to gale force in the NE offshore waters N of 27N and E of 60W from this afternoon through early Tuesday morning. Thereafter, the front will stall and gradually weaken before dissipating over the eastern offshore waters Tuesday night into Wed. Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the front, which will support the continuation of fresh to strong NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas across most of the offshore forecast waters through the end of the week.
Forecaster: Nelsie Ramos, National Hurricane Center
