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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2:05PM EDT (1805 UTC) Sun September 15 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC.
Active and Developing Storms
Tropical Storm Gordon is centered near 19.2N 45.5W at 15/1500 UTC or 1000 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WSW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. The 12 ft seas extend 60 nm out from the center in the N semicircle of Gordon, with peak seas around 13 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 17N to 21N between 40W and 43W. A west to west-southwest motion is expected during the next few days, with Gordon forecast to slow down considerably through the middle of the week. Gordon is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today or tonight.
and the latest Tropical Storm Gordon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
Tropical Waves
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 23W from 04N to 17N. The wave is nearly stationary. Convection near this wave is associated with the monsoon trough.
An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W from 20N southward to western Venezuela, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed near the south coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.
A west-central Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W extending from 20N to inland Panama. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along and near the far southern portions of this wave, likely aided by the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough reaching across the southwest Caribbean.
Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues southwestward to near 09N36W, and then resumes near 13N51W to 10N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 17N from 43W eastward, and from 08N to 13N between 45W and 57W.
...Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
A stationary front is draped across the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring off the coast of the northern Gulf from 89W through coastal Florida. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft prevail across the basin.
For the forecast, light to gentle breezes will occur through much of the upcoming week. Locally moderate to fresh winds could pulse in the Bay of Campeche nightly through the middle of the week.
...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the waves moving across the basin.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in central portions of the basin from 15N to the coasts of Jamaica and Hispaniola between 70W and 77W. Otherwise, a relatively fair and modest trade- wind pattern continues across much of the basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted via recent scatterometer data in the central Caribbean, along with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate E trade winds along with slight seas are over the eastern portions of the basin. Gentle NE to SE winds and relatively low seas of 1 to 3 ft remain elsewhere.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds will pulse in the central Caribbean through the middle of this week, with locally strong winds possible in the south-central basin tonight thru Tue. Pulsing moderate to locally fresh E winds will also occur off the coast of Honduras Monday into the middle of the week. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will continue across the waters the next several days.
...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Please See the Active & Developing Storms section for details on Tropical Storm Gordon in the central Atlantic, and the Tropical Waves section for details on the wave in the basin.
A 1008 mb off the coast of northeast Florida is located near 31N77W, and a stationary front extends southwestward to the central coast of Florida. Farther east, a stationary front extends eastward from 31N77W to 32N56W. An area of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is occurring across areas north of 23N between 74W and the east coast of Florida, including the central and northern Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is occurring farther east across a large area due to the nearby stationary front, with convection occurring north of 27N between 48W and 74W. Near and immediately south of the front, moderate to fresh W to SW winds are occurring along with seas of 6 to 10 ft. Near and immediately north of the front, fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are occurring. Winds and seas were confirmed via recent scatterometer and altimeter data.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin away from Tropical Storm Gordon and the aforementioned areas of convection associated with the stationary front. Gentle to moderate E to NE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are occurring across much of the basin east of 50W. To the west of 50W, light to gentle SW winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are analyzed. From the Equator to 10N and east of 45W, moderate to fresh S to SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are occurring.
For the forecast west of 55W away from the potential tropical development off the southeastern coast of the U.S., a non- tropical low pressure area is located along a frontal boundary a couple of hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coast, and is producing winds to gale force north of its center. The low is forecast to move northwestward or northward over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream toward the coasts of North Carolina and South Carolina, and it could become a subtropical or tropical storm during the next day or two if the associated front dissipates and showers and thunderstorms become sufficiently organized. Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, expect increasing winds and building seas across the waters north of 29N over the next several days. Moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas will develop by midweek north of 25N and east of 60W. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail otherwise.
Forecaster: Brian Adams, National Hurricane Center
