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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1:05PM EST (1805 UTC)
Monday Jan 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC.

Active and Developing Storms
Caribbean Gale Warning:

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support pulsing minimal gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia each night through Thu. Seas will peak at 10 to 12 ft with the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore Waters Forecasts at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Sierra Leone and extends southwestward to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 00N30W to 0040W and to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is south of the monsoon trough from the equator to 05N from 07W to 13W. Scattered moderate convection is also within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 18W and 30W.

...Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
A weak cold front entered the Gulf from the coast of Texas this morning, then stalled, and is now stationary from the TX/LA border to near Corpus Christi, TX. Moderate NE winds are behind the front. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are mainly over the central and southwestern Gulf, while the latest buoy and ship observations are reporting gentle SE-S winds in the eastern and NE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. 2 to 4 ft seas prevail across the basin.

Another stationary front is lingering parallel to the northern Gulf coast over land. Light onshore winds combined with abundant moisture are allowing for dense fog, decreasing visibility within 30 nm of the coastline along the north-central Gulf coast. Marine conditions will improve throughout the afternoon. Dense fog is expected to return during the overnight and morning hours through Wednesday.

For the forecast, the stationary front just offshore the Texas coast will remain through Wed. A second push of cold air will allow the front to finally move across the Gulf starting Thu, reaching near Mobile Bay to the Bay of Campeche Thursday night. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front. On Fri, winds will likely increase to gale force offshore Veracruz, Mexico.

...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please see the Active and Developing Storms section above for more details.

A fair trade-wind pattern continues for the entire basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong ENE winds and seas at 7 to 10 ft are found at the central basin, including the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola. Moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong ENE winds will persist off the coast of Colombia through at least Thu. These winds will pulse to between near-gale and gale force late evening to early morning hours, including this morning. Fresh to strong easterly trades will persist in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through Thu. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere.

...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
A tight pressure gradient remains over the Atlantic basin west of 50W due to an elongated surface trough stretching from 30N51W to 20N52W to 13N50W. As a result, fresh NE winds prevail from 20N to 30N between 50W and 61W, where seas are 9 to 12 ft. Moderate to fresh ENE winds are from the Greater Antilles and the Leeward Islands to 25N between 61W and 77W near the N Bahamas, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. North of 25N, gentle to moderate E-SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are present due to a ridge stretching to N Florida.

To the east of the surface trough, moderate to fresh trades north of 28N between 32W and 50W and north of 20N between 20W and 32W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. An area of low pressure is noted near 22N33W, allowing for the fresh winds NE of the low.

Over the deep tropics, fresh to strong winds were noted in earlier scatterometer data from 05N to 15N between 10W and 45W, where seas continue to be 8 to 11 ft in NE swell. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and seas below 6 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure over the northwestern Atlantic will continue to support fresh to locally strong easterly winds and higher seas across the waters south of 25N, including the Bahamas, Great Bahama Bank, the approach to the Windward Passage, and the Atlantic waters north of Puerto Rico into tonight. A weak cold front will track westward through Tue, reaching from 31N62W to 24N70W by Tuesday evening. Afterward, another cold front will move off northeastern Florida by Wed.

Mora


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