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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
8:15PM EDT (0015 UTC) Tuesday Mar 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America), Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC.

Active and Developing Storms
Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure ridge, along about 32N, and the Colombian low, will continue to support fresh to near gale-force trades across the south central and southeastern Caribbean through Thu morning. Winds offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force Tuesday night, and possibly briefly again on Wednesday night. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are expected with the strongest winds.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11.5N15.5W to 02.5N19.5W, then transitions to ITCZ, continuing from that point to 01S34W to the coast of Brazil at 03S37W. Scattered showers are noted about the ITCZ W of 18W.

...Discussion: Gulf Of America (Gulf Of Mexico)
A surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf, from 1028 mb highpressure just E of Bermuda, westward to SE Texas. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds are found across most of the basin, with slight seas of 2 to 4 ft, except peak seas of 5 ft offshore of the central Mexican coast. A small and narrow band of weak showers extends offshore from the mouth of the Mississippi River.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will prevail through midweek. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Mexico will support mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds basin-wide, pulsing to fresh and strong near the northern Yucatan and the western Gulf in the evenings, and slightly weaker winds overall in the northeastern Gulf. Seas will be slight to moderate through Wed. A cold front may impact the northwestern Gulf beginning Wednesday night, before moving across the basin through Friday night with winds increasing to fresh to strong speeds and seas building to 9 ft behind it. A brief period of gale force winds may be possible offshore of Veracruz early on Thu.

...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Please see Active and Developing Storms section above regarding developing Gale conditions in the south-central Caribbean.

A strong pressure gradient between the Colombian low and Atlantic high pressure extending westward along 32N to the north is supporting fresh to strong trade winds over much of the central and eastern Caribbean. Winds are moderate to fresh across the remaining basin, except for light winds in far SW portions. Rough seas of 8 to 10 ft prevail in the central and south-central Caribbean and are a bit more moderate at 6 to 8 ft in the eastern Caribbean, except locally rough near Atlantic passages. Scattered passing showers dot much of the north central and W portions of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades across the eastern basin through Tue, and the central basin through Wednesday night. Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale- force during the night-time hours Tuesday night. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse near the Windward Passage through mid-week. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Lee of Cuba through Wednesday night. Large easterly trade- wind swell from the tropical North Atlantic will keep rough seas near the Lesser Antilles through Wednesday night. Marine conditions will improve slightly by the end of the week as the pressure gradient weakens due to a weak cold front approaching the NW Caribbean.

...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Surface ridging dominates the central and western tropical Atlantic, centered on a 1028 mb high near 32N60W. This pattern is supporting widespread moderate to fresh trade winds south of 27N and west of 45W, becoming moderate SE to S winds north of the Bahamas and west of 70W. Rough seas to 10 ft in E swell are noted in this region of fresh winds as well as east of the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, the remnants of a frontal boundary are analyzed as a surface trough, extending from 31N37W to 25N41W. Fresh to strong NE winds are occurring N of 27N between the trough and 48W. Associated remnant rough seas are found N of 28N between 25W and 37W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring N of 22N between 34W and 41W. Farther east, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas in NE swell prevail off the coast of northwest Africa, supported by a strong pressure gradient between a high to the north over the Azores and lower pressures over northwest Africa. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail over the rest of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail south of 27N through midweek, reaching strong north of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Rough seas will prevail within these winds and east of the central and southeast Bahamas through Tue. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected elsewhere across the region. Fresh to strong southerly winds may develop off northern Florida Wednesday night ahead of a cold front. That front is expected to move offshore Thursday with fresh to strong winds and building seas behind it, weakening and slowing from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by late Thursday night.

Forecaster: Scott Stripling, National Hurricane Center

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