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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2:15PM EDT (1815 UTC) Friday Oct 10 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America), Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC.
Active and Developing Storms
Atlantic Tropical Systems: Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 20.2N 63.4W at 10/1500 UTC or 120 nm N of the Northern Leeward Islands. It is moving NW at 14 kt and the estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are peaking near 20 ft (6 M) just northeast of the center. Heavy rain with isolated thunderstorms are seen near and up to 130 nm in a southeast semicircle from the center. Jerry is expected to turn toward the north this evening, then toward the northeast and east- northeast Sunday night and Monday. Jerry is forecast to maintain near its current intensity for the next few days. Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, and are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells are expected to spread toward the rest of the Greater Antilles today and tonight. for more information.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information.
For the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on Jerry, please visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
Significant Rainfall Across Eastern Mexico: A slow-moving surface trough will continue to take advantage of abundant tropical moisture to trigger periodic heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms through early Saturday morning, across eastern Mexico along the Bay of Campeche from near the border of Tamaulipas and San Luis Potosi States southward to central Veracruz States. Locally heavy downpours can still lead to flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying areas and hilly terrains. Please stay up to date with the latest forecast and possible flood statements from your local weather agency for details.
Tropical Waves
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W from 20N southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is present from 10N to 13N between 33W and 43W.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 74W from near the Windward Passage southward to northern Colombia. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Widely scattered thunderstorms are seen near and south of Jamaica.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W from near the Yucatan Channel southward across Honduras and Nicaragua to northern Costa Rica. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring at the northwestern Caribbean Sea and near the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua, including the Gulf of Honduras.
Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Senegal and Gambia, then runs southwestward to 08N24W. An ITCZ continues westward from 08N24W through 09N40W to north of Suriname at 09N55W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is evident south of the monsoon trough from 04N to 08N between 19W and 24W, and up to 150 nm along either side of the ITCZ between 27W and 46W.
The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia.
...Discussion: Gulf Of America (Gulf Of Mexico)
Please read the Active & Developing Storms section on potential heavy rain across eastern Mexico.
A surface trough meanders southwestward from a 1012 mb frontal low pressure near Cape Canaveral, FL to western Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from southern Florida southward across the Florida Straits to central and western Cuba. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are evident at the northeastern Gulf. Mostly gentle NE winds and 3 to 4 ft seas dominate the southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh NNE to NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.
For the forecast, tight pressure gradient between a strong high pressure over the Mississippi Valley and the aforementioned frontal low/surface trough will maintain strong winds and rough seas at the northeastern Gulf into Sat. Conditions will improve across the Gulf region late Saturday and especially Sun as a non- tropical low pressure lifts northward across the western Atlantic and a ridge builds across the Gulf. Afterward, the ridge will sustain mainly a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and moderate seas into early next week.
...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Please Refer to the Active and Developing Storms section on Tropical Storm Jerry located near the Northern Leeward Islands.
Convergent southerly winds feeding toward Tropical Storm Jerry are causing scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms across the Lesser Antilles and nearby waters. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ, Tropical Waves and Gulf of America sections for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas at 6 to 10 ft dominate waters near the Leeward and northern Windward Islands. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh SE to SW winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are evident at the northwestern and southeastern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras and waters near the ABC Islands. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.
For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds will continue to impact the Leeward Islands and the far northeastern Caribbean through this afternoon. Large E swell will continue to propagate across the Caribbean passages of the Leeward Islands and the Anegada Passage today, producing moderate to rough seas. High pressure will begin to build from the central Atlantic to the Bahamas late Sun and Monday to bring a return of the trade winds across the eastern Caribbean.
...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Please Refer to the Active and Developing Storms section on Tropical Storm Jerry located near the Northern Leeward Islands.
A stationary front runs west-southwestward from southeast of Bermuda across 31N70W to a 1012 mb low near Cape Canaveral, FL. A surface trough meanders southwestward from this low to western Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from the central Bahamas northward to off northeastern Florida. Farther east, a broad surface trough reaches southward from southeast of Bermuda across 31N63W to north of Tropical Storm Jerry near 22N63W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up north of 23N between 58W and 65W. At the central Atlantic, a weakening stationary front reaches southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N32W to near 28N48W. Scattered showers are found near and up to 175 nm south of this feature. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.
Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are present near and north of the first stationary front. Gentle to moderate NE to E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate to large swells exist south of the front west of 66W. Fresh to strong ESE to SE winds and 8 to 14 ft seas are noted north of Tropical Storm Jerry, north of 22N between 57W and 66W. Farther east, gentle to moderate E to SSE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft in moderate to large northerly swells exist north of 21N between 35W and 57W. South of Jerry, moderate to fresh ENE to SE winds with 6 to 10 ft seas are noted from 09N to 19N between 45W and the Lesser Antilles. To the east north of 10N between 35W and 45W, gentle to moderate ENE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate S to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Jerry will move to 22.1N 63.8W this evening, 24.4N 63.7W Saturday morning, and 26.9N 63.2W Saturday evening. It will then reach 29.2N 62.7W Sun morning, 30.8N 61.7W Sun evening, and 31.4N 59.7W Monday morning. Jerry will change little in intensity as it moves to near 30.4N 54.6W early Tue. The 1012 mb low near Cape Canaveral is forecast to become an extratropical low pressure system later today and moves northeastward through the weekend. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are occurring mainly north of the Bahamas and west of 70W. The surface trough related to it will also transform into a frontal trough, producing fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas across the Florida coastal waters north of the northwest Bahamas from Saturday through Sun morning.
Forecaster: Patrick Chan, National Hurricane Center
