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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tuesday Mar 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC.

Active and Developing Storms
Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front that extends from near 31N78W to inland central Florida will progress eastward across the western Atlantic for the next few days. Southwest winds ahead of the front and northwest winds behind are forecast to reach near-gale to gale-force north of 29N between 72W and 77W by late tonight into early on Tue. Seas with these winds will be in the range of 9 to 13 ft. These near-gale to gale- force winds and very rough seas will shift eastward with the cold front to north of 29N between 62W and 67W by early Tuesday afternoon. As this front weakens Tuesday afternoon and evening, both winds and seas should gradually subside.

Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions, and plan their routes accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 06N11W, to 01N17W. The ITCZ continues from 01N17W, to the Equator along 20W to 04S37W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is depicted from 05N to 03S along both the Monsoon Trough and the ITCZ.

...Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
A cold front extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida to Tampico, Mexico. Lower broken to overcast multilayered ceilings, and scattered moderate to locally strong convection are depicted along the frontal boundary. The strongest convection is depicted east of 89W and off the coast of Texas in the NW Gulf.

Moderate to fresh N to NW winds prevail north of 26N east of 90W. Within this winds seas are 4 to 8 ft. While NE fresh to strong winds prevail N of 24N west of 90W with seas 2 to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds are present in the remainder of the basin with seas 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will exit the basin on Tuesday morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected behind the front through Tuesday morning. Low pressure may form over the western Gulf on Thu, then track east-northeast toward the NE Gulf by Friday dragging a cold front across the basin. Expect increasing winds and seas with this next frontal system along with possible numerous showers and thunderstorms.

...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Fresh to strong trade winds are present off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela with seas to 9 ft due to the somawhat strong pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure and lower pressure over South America. Over the central Caribbean moderate to fresh winds with seas 6 to 8 are present. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean through Tue. Afterward, winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds as a cold front moves across the western Atlantic. This front will push southward across the northwest Caribbean Tue, then reach eastern Cuba on Wednesday while dissipating. Pulsing fresh to strong winds will continue near the coast of Colombia, mainly at night, through the forecast period.

...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Please, refer to the Active and Developing Storms section above for details about the gale warning over the western Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N74W to central Florida. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is depicted along the frontal boundary. Ahead of the front, SW moderate to fresh winds prevail with seas 4 to 7 ft. Behind the front, NW moderate winds with seas 2 to 4 ft prevail. A surface ridge extends SW from 1021 mb high pressure center near 36N18W to the Dominican Republic. Broad surface light to gentle anticyclonic wind flow is found along the ridge mainly N of 22N along with seas 4 to 7 ft.

Fresh to locally strong NE winds are found in the tropical Atlantic from 9N to 22N east of 41W. Seas within this winds are 7 to 10 ft. Similar winds are found between the Canary Islands and the west coast of Africa. Elsewhre mainly moderate winds and seas prevail.

For the forecast, a cold front extending from 31N72W to central Florida will reach from near 31N70W to the Straits of Florida Tuesday morning, from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Tuesday afternoon, then weaken as it reaches from near 31N56W to eastern Cuba by Wednesday morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected ahead and behind the front. Winds are forecast to reach minimal gale force tonight and Tue, affecting mainly the waters N of 27N. A weak low pressure may form along the front near 30N56W on Thursday morning, with the front reaching northern Hispaniola. High pressure in its wake will quickly shift eastward through Friday night, allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds to develop over the western half of the forecast waters as low pressure tracks northeastward along a coastal front near northeast Florida.

Forecaster: Keren Rosado-Vazquez, National Hurricane Center


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