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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
157 PM EDT Wednesday Mar 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC.

Active and Developing Storms
....Atlantic Gale Warning...

A 1012 mb low is centered over the western Atlantic near 31N72W. A gale is forecast northwest of the front and east of a line from 31N75W to 28N73W with northeast to east winds and seas 8 to 12 ft. This is expected to continue through 21/1200 UTC. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website, for more details.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N09W to 01N20W. The ITCZ continues from 01N20W to 00N26W to the coast of South America near 06S34W. Isolated moderate convection is near the monsoon trough from 05N-05S between 06W-1.W.

Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
A stationary front extends south of the Straits of Florida near 23N81W to a 1015 mb low near 23N84W. A cold front extends southwest of this low across western Cuba and into the northwest Caribbean. Scattered showers are observed across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, a surface trough is over the western Gulf from 26N98W to 21N95W. Near the trough, scattered light to moderate showers are across Deep South Texas near the mouth of the Rio Grande river. Scattered showers are also along the trough across the eastern Mexican coast. Winds in the eastern half of the Gulf are out of the north-northeast between 10-15kt. Winds are beginning to veer to the west-southwest across the western Gulf between 10-15 kt. A mid-level trough is digging across Florida and sliding into the western Atlantic with a mid- upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico.

The ridge will dominate the Gulf region over the next several days producing mainly a moderate to locally fresh wind flow, except off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula where late evening local effects will keep brief periods of NE winds to 20 kt.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
A cold front is pushing southward from western Cuba from a 1013 mb low near 22N84W to Quintana Roo Mexico near 19N88W. A pre- frontal trough is also noted from 21N82W to 17N87W. Scattered showers are along this trough moving across central Cuba southwestward into Belize and northern Honduras. An area of showers is also noted near the coast of Nicaragua. Additionally, scattered showers are also moving across western Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted over the eastern and southern Caribbean with strong winds north of Colombia. In the northwest Caribbean, winds behind the front are out of the north between 10-20 kt with light to gentle southwesterly winds ahead of the front.

The cold front is allowing for a relaxed pressure gradient in the south-central Caribbean. However, fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at night within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia through Thu night. The cold front will move southwest and extend from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Thursday morning, and from eastern Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua by Thursday evening while gradually dissipating. Gentle to moderate winds will dominate across the remainder of the basin through Sun.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
A Gale Warning is in effect for the west Atlantic waters. Refer to the section above for details. A stationary front over the western Atlantic stretches from a 1016 mb low near 32N77W off the South Carolina coast to Daytona Beach Florida. Farther south, another stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N63W to a 1012 mb low east of the Bahamas near 26N76W. This stationary front continues to the Straits of Florida near 23N81W. Scattered showers are moving off the east coast of Florida into the western Atlantic. Scattered moderate convection is near the stationary front north of 27N between 65W-74W. East of the frontal boundary, surface ridging is extending into the western Atlantic waters anchored by a 1036 mb high near 47N03W. Upper level ridging is currently over the the western Atlantic while an upper level low is centered west of the Canary Islands near 26N27W producing scattered showers north of 21N between 15W-23W.

Strong to minimal gale force winds are expected northwest of the front and mainly east of 75W through early Thursday morning. The low pressure center will gradually shift northeast over the next 24 hours, dragging the frontal boundary, that is forecast to extend from 30N65W to a 1011 mb low pressure near 28N70W to 23N78W by Thursday morning. The stationary front lingering along the east coast of Florida will push southward as a reinforcing cold front. By Friday, it will merge with the stationary front and extend from 28N65W to eastern Cuba. Swell generated by these fronts will dominate the waters E of the Bahamas through the upcoming weekend.


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