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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
8:05AM EDT (1205 UTC) Tuesday June 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.

Active and Developing Storms
Excessive Rainfall - Cuba, Bahamas, Jamaica, Cayman Islands: Moist southerly mid-level flow combined with enhanced rising air motion due to a strong upper-level jet positioned just NW of this area may lead to the potential for heavy rain and strong thunderstorms from Wednesday afternoon through Friday night, especially across portions of eastern and central Cuba, the central Bahamas, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. These rains could cause flooding, especially over mountainous areas in eastern and central Cuba. Please see the latest forecast from your national meteorological service for more information.

Developing gale-force winds for the Meteo-France marine zones in the eastern part of Irving and in Madiera: The Meteo-France forecast consists of developing gale-force winds in the marine zones in the eastern part of Irving from 06/1500 UTC until 07/0000 UTC, and in Madiera from 06/0900 UTC until 06/1500 UTC. Please visit the website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/ bulletin/WONT50_LFPW/20230605201132458566 for details.

Tropical Waves
The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 40W, from 14N southward, moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. Isolated convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 38W and 42W.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 62W, from 14N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Isolated showers are within 60 nm of the wave axis from 10N to 13N.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 73W, from 14N southward, moving westward at 10 knots. Isolated showers are near the wave axis from 11N to 13N.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea- Bissau near 11N15W to 05N25W. The ITCZ continues from 05N25W to 01N39W. It resumes from 01N42W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 11N between 15W and 29W.

...Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate winds are noted west of the Yucatan Peninsula with mainly light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over the area of moderate winds, and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will generally prevail across the basin through the end of the week, with mainly gentle to moderate winds

...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
A high pressure ridge extends along 20N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a pair of tropical waves is supporting moderate to fresh trades, and seas of 4-6 ft, east of 75W. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, are also noted over the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 2-3 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, weak high pressure across the central Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate winds across the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic today, with occasional fresh pulses across the SE Caribbean and along the coast of Venezuela. High pressure will build north of the area through early Fri, increasing winds and seas over the eastern and central Caribbean from the middle to end of the week. Active weather is expected across N central portions Wednesday through Thu.

...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
A cold front extends from 31N62W to the northern Bahamas. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 7-9 ft prevail north of the front. A second cold front extends from 31N21W to 23N34W to 31N47W. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-11 ft are noted within 180 nm east of the front. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-9 ft, are also noted within 120 nm north of the front between 30W and 45W. A ridge extends along 20N, anchored by 1016 mb high pressure near 20N55W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure center and lower pressure in the vicinity of the cold front over the western Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, north of 25N between 58W and 68W. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-4 ft, are in the vicinity of the high and along the ridge. Over the tropical waters south of the ridge, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, Central Atlantic high pressure will build westward to 70W through late Wed, and then across the remaining waters through Fri.

Forecaster: Andrew Levine, National Hurricane Center


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