home

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
8:15PM EDT (0015 UTC) Saturday May 30 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America), Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC.

Tropical Waves
An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen south of 11N and inland between 46W and 60W. Saharan air extends from behind the wave along 50W to the W coast of Africa.

A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 72W south of 15N to inland central Venezuela. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this tropical wave over the Caribbean waters. However scattered moderate to strong convection is inland across Colombia and far western Venezuela on either side of the wave.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 16.5N16.5W, then curves southwestward to near 07.5N25W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N25W to 05N35W to 04.5N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 02.5N to 10.5N and E of 24W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen south of 11N between 46W and 60W.

...Discussion: Gulf Of America (Gulf Of Mexico)
A sharp and well defined upper level trough extends downward into the low levels of the atmosphere, from Mississippi southward and across the west-central Gulf, to a 1010 mb surface low across the central Bay of Campeche near 20N93W. This feature continues to support scattered moderate to strong convection over the central Gulf, E of the trough to 85W, from the Yucatan Peninsula to the Florida Panhandle. E of this trough, a 1016 mb high is centered offshore of Tampa Bay, and is generally yielding gentle to moderate SE to S winds across most of the waters E of the trough, with seas 2 to 4 ft. To the W of the trough, gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends weakly across S Florida and into the eastern Gulf. This ridge will sustain gentle to moderate SE to S winds through Tue. The exception will be evening pulses of fresh winds off the northern Yucatan and in the central Gulf through the same period. A pronounced deep- layered upper-level trough across the western Gulf combined with very warm, humid and unstable air will continue to support periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms, across the central and eastern Gulf through Sun. Frequent lightning, with gusty winds and locally rough seas are expected in strong thunderstorms. Mariners are urged to keep up to date with the latest forecasts.

...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
A deep-layered upper level trough is located over SE Mexico while the East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the SW Caribbean. The interaction of these features is producing scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection in the SW Caribbean S of 12.5N, between the NW coast of Colombia and SE Nicaragua. Scattered showers embedded in the SE low level wind flow are moving across the Gulf of Honduras. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure ridge north of the region along 25N-26N and the Colombia Low supports fresh to strong trades and 7-9 ft seas across the south-central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will sustain fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the central Caribbean through tonight before gradually diminishing in areal coverage on Sat. Moderate E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to fresh speeds during the night through Monday night, then to strong speeds Tuesday night and again Wednesday night. The Atlantic ridge will weaken as a couple of frontal boundaries move across the western Atlantic. This will yield moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the basin through Tue, except the south-central Caribbean, where fresh to strong winds and rough seas will persist. A tropical wave is forecast to reach the Windward Islands by Saturday afternoon, leading to increased shower activity.

...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
A cold front is sinking slowly southward across the NW waters, extending from 31N61W to 29N73W and then inland across Georgia. Ahead of the front, SW winds have increased to fresh to strong speeds, N of 28N between 44W and 68W, while seas are building to 6-10 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along and ahead of the front to 60W and NE Florida. All other convection across the Atlantic is associated with tropical waves or the monsoon trough/ITCZ. A broad ridge extends from 1028 mb high pressure near 34N22W southwestward to 24N50W and then weakly W-NW to south Florida. This ridge dominates the remaining Atlantic, with moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas prevailing across the vast majority of the basin S of 20N and W of 25W. Mostly fair and hazy conditions dominate the Tropical Atlantic south of 20N, and east of 50W to the coast of Africa, due to Saharan air. East of 25W and N of 17N, fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to locally rough seas prevail, confirmed by scatterometer data from this morning. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail within the ridge axis that extends from just W of the Canary Islands through the central Atlantic and to areas just NE of the Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge over the western Atlantic will support gentle to moderate winds, with moderate seas south of 26N through Tue. For the waters north of 26N and east of 70W, two cold fronts migrating eastward across the north Atlantic will bring fresh to strong winds along with rough seas through tonight, then again from Saturday night through Sun night accompanying the next front. Winds are forecast to reach minimal gale force on either side of the second cold front Saturday night through Sun night. As a result, a Gale Warning has been issued. Rough to very tough seas could accompany the strongest winds.

Forecaster: Scott Stripling, National Hurricane Center

Share this page: Email
- back to top -