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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2:15PM EDT (1815 UTC) Tuesday May 12 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America), Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1636 UTC.
Tropical Waves
A tropical wave has its axis near 31W from 02S to 10N, and is moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 05S to 15N between 22W and 33W.
The tropical wave that was inland Venezuela has dissipated.
Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 07N12.5W and continues SW to 01N26W. The ITCZ extends from 00N33W to 00N46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 01N to 05N and west of 22W. Similar convection is found from 02S to 02N between 34W and 50W.
...Discussion: Gulf Of America (Gulf Of Mexico)
A weak cold front extends from northern Florida to the western Bay of Campeche this morning. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are occurring behind the front. Light to gentle winds are ahead of the front. Slight seas prevail across the Gulf, except for moderate seas to 6 ft offshore Veracruz.
For the forecast, the weak cold front will stall and dissipate on Wed. Winds will be generally moderate or weaker on either side of the front, except for fresh to locally strong offshore Veracruz, Mexico through early this evening. High pressure and quiescent conditions will dominate on Wednesday and Thu. Another weak cold front is forecast to enter the NE Gulf Thursday night and dissipate over the E Gulf on Fri. SE winds are forecast to reach mainly fresh speeds over the western half of the basin Sat.
...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic forces fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the south-central to southwest Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted across the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean along with 4-7 ft seas. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong tradewinds over the central Caribbean through the weekend, with the strongest winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh tradewinds are expected across the remainder of forecast waters through Saturday night. Large E swell with rough seas will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters from Wednesday morning into early Sun.
...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
A weak cold front extends from 31N73W to NE Florida near 30N81W this morning. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found along the front. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge that is supporting moderate to fresh winds along with 5 to 8 ft seas S of 23N. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will stall Wednesday morning then lift north of the area by Thursday morning. Fresh to locally strong are expected west of the front with scattered showers and thunderstorms along the front. Another weak cold front will move off the NE Florida coast on Thu, extending from 31N50W to 25N72W Friday morning, and from 31N72W to 26N65W on Saturday morning. Fresh to strong S winds are expected N of 27N ahead of the front.
Forecaster: Keren Rosado-Vazquez, National Hurricane Center
