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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC.

Active and Developing Storms
. ...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A gale is forecast to start over the central Atlantic on 05/1200 UTC. A cold front will produce gale force winds N of 30N between 54W-56W with seas 16-18 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of N Liberia near 06N10W to 04N20W, where recent scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 00N30N to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-04N between 20W-26W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 01N-06S between 30W-50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 01N-05N between 45W-51W.

Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
Weak high pressure centered over Georgia and the NE Gulf of Mexico is maintaining gentle winds across much of the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are over the northwest Gulf, between the high pressure over Georgia and lower pressure over northern Mexico. Latest and current satellite and radar imagery show isolated showers over portions of the northern Gulf, mainly north of 26N and west of about 85W.

A cold front arriving on the Texas coast Sat will trigger showers and thunderstorms over the far NW Gulf Fri night through Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse each evening N and W of the Yucatan Peninsula through the period as thermal troughs move NW from the Peninsula over the Gulf. Otherwise, A weak high pres ridge over the NE Gulf will generally support light to moderate E to SE winds over the basin through Tuesday night.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
The tail end of a stationary front reaches E Cuba near 20N75W. Scattered showers are over E Cuba and W Hispaniola. Elsewhere, scattered showers are along the coast of Panama. A weak surface pressure gradient is presently producing 10-20 kt tradewinds. Strongest winds are along the coast of N Colombia, while weakest winds are along the S coast of Hispaniola. In the upper levels, strong subsidence is over Central America and the Caribbean Sea.

Winds over the basin will gradually increase through the middle of next week as high pressure rebuilds over the western Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds will pulse each night beginning Sat night over the Gulf of Honduras and especially along the coast of Colombia.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
A gale is forecast for the central Atlantic. See above.

A stationary front is over the central Atlantic from 30N48W to E Cuba near 20N75W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm NW of the front. A 1018 mb high is over the subtropical Atlantic near 22N44W. The tail end of a cold front is over the E Atlantic from 30N19W to 23N27W. Scattered showers are over the Canary Islands.

The central Atlantic front will begin to slowly move E again tonight. The tail end of the front will push to E of the Leeward Islands near 18N62W by Monday morning. Gale conditions are possible near 31N65W Sat evening as intense low pressure centered SE of New England pivots southeastward to pass just NE of Bermuda. North swell generated by the low will produce very large seas across the waters east and northeast of the Bahamas through the weekend. Seas will gradually subside through early next week as the swell decays.

The E Atlantic front will exit the Atlantic Fri.


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