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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1231 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC.

Active and Developing Storms
...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure north of the Caribbean will continue to induce strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia. These winds are forecast to reach gale force during the night time hours tonight and Saturday night.

...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front is expected to move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday morning, and it should move quickly southeastward. The front is expected to clear the entire Gulf of Mexico by Sunday morning. Strong northerly winds, which are forecast to reach gale force, are expected behind the front Saturday afternoon through Saturday night over the western Gulf of Mexico.


Southerly winds are expected to increase over portions of the western Atlantic Saturday afternoon ahead of the cold front that will be moving over the Gulf of Mexico. Southerly and southwesterly winds are forecast to reach gale force east of northern Florida and Georgia prior to and along with the cold front by early Sunday morning. These gales will migrate eastward into Sunday night.

For additional information on all of these warning areas, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W and extends to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Isolated moderate convection is from 05S-03N between 17W-50W.

Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
A 1021 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 28N83W. 10-20 kt anticyclonic winds are over the Gulf with strongest winds over the NW Gulf. A cold front is over NW Texas moving towards the Gulf. Broken low clouds are presently over the N Gulf N of 27N. Sea fog is likely tonight over the N Gulf in advance of the cold front.

A strong cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday morning, with a line of rainshowers and thunder likely preceding the front. Winds to gale force are expected behind the front along the coast of Mexico near Tampico on Saturday afternoon shifting to near Veracruz on Saturday night. The front will extend from 30N87W to 25N90W to 19N96W on Saturday night, and from S Florida beyond NW Cuba by Sunday afternoon. The front will exit from the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday evening, and allow strong winds to taper off across the basin by sunrise on Monday.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Quiet weather prevails across the Caribbean Sea. Only typical patches of low clouds and some embedded isolated showers exist across Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, Jamaica and the waters near the Cayman Islands. The trade winds are strongest near the coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the S central Caribbean Sea through Wednesday night. The winds will increase to gale force along the immediate coast of Colombia tonight and on Saturday night, and then again on Monday night, on Tuesday night, and on Wednesday night. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere. A strong cold front will cross the NW Caribbean Sea on Sunday and Monday, then stall and weaken. The front will reach from the Yucatan Channel to the Gulf of Honduras on Sunday morning, and then extend from SE Cuba to the eastern coast of Honduras on Monday morning. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are expected behind the front.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
A 1021 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N75W. A 1017 mb low is further E near 27N61W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the low. A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 30N47W to 23N54W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. A 1032 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 34N28W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 20N between 45W-65W supporting the surface low.

Over the W Atlantic, weak high pressure will drift eastward from the SE United States toward Bermuda through Sat afternoon. Winds will veer to the S, and then strengthen from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning E of Florida, and ahead of a strong cold front. The strong cold front will push off the Florida coast on Sunday morning, and extend from 31N79W to 28N80W, then reach from 31N68W to central Cuba on Sunday night, from 28N65W to SE Cuba on Monday afternoon easter Cuba on Sunday night, from 26N60W to SE Cuba on Monday night. The front will be weakening along 24N65W to 22N78W on Tuesday night. Minimal gale force winds will be possible on either side of the front N of 28N and W of 60W from Sunday through Monday. Seas may build as high as 20 feet in NW swell behind the front near 31N65W on Tuesday.

Forecaster: Mike Formosa, National Hurricane Center

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