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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
8:15AM EDT (1215 UTC) Friday Nov 21 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America), Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC.
Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 09N24W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 09N35W to 08N42W and to 09N54W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring near and south of the monsoon trough from 05N to 11N between the coast of Africa and 18W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm northwest of the monsoon trough between 17W-20W.
...Discussion: Gulf Of America (Gulf Of Mexico)
Relatively weak high pressure that is anchored by 1019 mb high center over northern Florida is over the eastern and central Gulf portions. The associated gradient is generally allowing for light to gentle winds over the NE Gulf with seas of 1 to 2 ft, however, a tighter gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures in Texas and northern Mexico is maintaining moderate to occasionally fresh southeast to south winds across the majority of the central and western Gulf waters along with seas of 3 to 5 ft.
A trough extends from just east of northeast Texas southeastward to near 26N90W. Broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds, with isolated, small showers are noted from 26N to 30N between 90W and 94W.
For the forecast, the weak high pressure in place will change little into early next week. A weak cold front will move across the northern Gulf Saturday through Sun, with very little impact on winds and seas. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each afternoon and evening into next week as a trough develops each day and moves westward. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh SE to S winds and slight to moderate seas are expected over much of the Gulf today as ridging prevails over the southeastern United States. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong SE winds will develop in the northwestern Gulf starting late Sun into next week as the pressure gradient between the high pressure and low pressure W of the area Gulf tightens. A cold front then moves into the far western Gulf early on Tue, then stalls and weakens.
...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Weak ridging stretches southward from the western Atlantic toward the northwestern Caribbean while a trough is analyzed from near the southeastern Bahamas through the Windward Passage, to southwestern Haiti and to near 16N74W. Isolated showers are near the trough, and over some sections of Haiti. Overnight partial scatterometer satellite data indicates that mostly fresh trade winds are confined to the south-central Caribbean. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Fresh NE winds are in the lee of Cuba and in the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds are present across the basin along with seas of 3 to 5 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are confined to the southwestern Caribbean as the eastern extent of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is within close proximity of this section of the sea.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will continue over the basin into next week as low pressure anchors over the south-central Caribbean and high pressure prevails north of the region. Pulsing strong winds and locally rough seas are expected offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning this weekend into next week.
...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
A stationary front is analyzed from a 1013 mb low that is north of the area near 34N53W south-southwestward to 30N55W, to 29N60W and to 27.5N67W. A trough is ahead of the stationary front along a position from 31N48W to 27N50W and to 23N54.5W. An upper-level trough is over this area, and is helping to sustain scattered moderate convection from 22N to 31N between 47W and 54W. Over the eastern Atlantic, a 1015 mb low has dropped to south of 30N near 29N25W 1015 mb. An occluded front extends from the low to 30N24W. A cold front extends from that point to 26N25W and to 25N30W, where it transitions to a shearline to 26N35W and to 27N40W. Strong high pressure is present north of the low and fronts, with the resultant pressure allowing for fresh northeast to east winds to exist north of this system. Seas are 8 to 12 ft in mixed swell north of 26N between 24W and 46W. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate NW to NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are north of 20N between 50W and the Florida-Georgia coast. In the tropical Atlantic,roughly from 05N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present across those waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NE winds will occur north of the Greater Antilles and through the southern and central Bahamas into early Saturday as high pressure prevails to the north and low pressure remains anchored over the south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds are expected north of 29N and west of 65W, including offshore of northern Florida by Saturday as a cold front moves off the east coast of the U.S. The front is forecast to enter the northern waters on Sun, followed by mostly moderate N to NE winds and building seas in the wake of the front.
Forecaster: Jorge Aguirre-Echevarria, National Hurricane Center
