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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Fri August 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

Tropical Waves
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W, south of 19N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 36W and 41W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W, south of 19N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 48W and 56W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W, south of 19N, moving west at 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 61W and 64W.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough passes the coastal sections of Senegal near 15N17W, to 14N24W, to 12N30W. The ITCZ continues from 12N30W to 10N41W, to 08N50W, to 10N61W. Minimal convection is noted along the convergence zone axis, except that associated with tropical waves, as indicated above.

Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front extends along the north central Gulf coast from low pressure near Mobile Alabama to near Lake Charles Louisiana. Isolated showers prevail from the NE Gulf, near the Big Bend of Florida, to the Bay of Campeche, including the Yucatan Peninsula. A tropical wave along 95W is exiting the region.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow prevails across the Gulf waters. Light to gentle winds will dominate the area through Tuesday night. Stronger winds are expected in the eastern Bay of Campeche and west of the Yucatan Peninsula at night due to local effects.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the entire Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate to locally strong convection is noted in the Caribbean Sea, west of 60W.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from Colombia along 74W westward, to southern Costa Rica. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring in clusters in northern Colombia and northern Venezuela, and from 06N to 13N between 77W and 84W.

Fresh to strong trade winds are expected across the central Caribbean Sea through Tuesday. The strongest winds are expected to occur Saturday night and Sunday. Moderate to fresh winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras and in the eastern Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean north of 20N between 50W and the central Bahamas. A weak surface trough is analyzed from 29N62W to 26N68W to 29N75W. A surface ridge extends from a 1020 mb high near 28N26W, to 1024 mb high near 26N52W.

Light to gentle winds are expected across the northern waters through Tuesday. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will dominate the waters south of 23N from the Great Bahama Bank to the waters that are to the north of Hispaniola.

Forecasters: Mike Tichacek, Dan Mundell, National Hurricane Center


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