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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
8:15PM EDT (0015 UTC) Saturday September 20 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America), Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2240 UTC.
Active and Developing Storms
Tropical Storm Gabrielle is centered near 22.4N 56.6W at 2100 UTC, or 445 nm NE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving W-NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed remains 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are peaking to around 22 ft just northeast of the center. Satellite imagery shows Gabrielle's center being partially exposed under strong westerly shear, causing a large area of numerous moderate to strong convection to be located to the east of center, roughly from 21N to 24N between 54W and 57W. New convection has begun to develop and remain within 60 nm east through southeast of the center in recent hours. Gabrielle is forecast to maintain its current motion through Sat, then begin to gradually intensify with a gradual turn toward the north- northwestward expected by Saturday night as it reaches hurricane intensity, followed by a northward motion by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Gabrielle is expected to pass east of Bermuda Sun night and on Mon. Moderate-sized SE swell generated by Gabrielle is expected to reach Bermuda by early Saturday morning and build through the weekend.
Tropical Waves
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 23W, south of 21N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. A 1010 mb surface low associated with it is analyzed across the Cabo Verde Islands near 16N23.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07.5N to 15N between 20W and 28W.
A central Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 38W, south of 22N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection dots the waters near the wave from 11N to 16N between 32W and 41W.
A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 76W south of 20N to inland Colombia near 09N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the Windward Passage, Jamaica, Haiti, and also inland across Colombia.
Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 19N16W, and continues southwestward to 12N21W to 08N30W and to 07.5N38W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N52W. Aside from convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm of the coast of Africa between 09W and 17W, from 04N to 07.5N between 15N-40W, and from 05N to 07.5N between 46W-52W.
...Discussion: Gulf Of America (Gulf Of Mexico)
Relatively weak high pressure is over the basin, with a 1018 mb high center located over Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana. The related pressure gradient is allowing for mostly light to gentle NE to E winds throughout the basin. Seas as reported by buoy observations are 1 to 3 ft.
Scattered moderate convection is noted across the Mexican waters south of 26N and west of 94W, where a weak surface trough prevails. Moderate to strong diurnal convection occurring the northwest Yucatan and western Cuba are nearing the adjacent Gulf coastal waters.
For the forecast, a broad ridge extending southward from a 1018 mb high pressure center over SE Louisiana will control the general weather pattern through tonight before shifting NE and weakening into next week. Unsettled weather will continue over the far southeastern Gulf and Yucatan Channel through tonight as ample moisture and a nearby trough remain in place. With Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle over the Atlantic lifting northward through Monday night, the Atlantic ridge will build westward across the northern Gulf early next week.
...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin.
An upper-level trough continues to extend across the Atlantic from south of Bermuda to the Mona Passage, then across the central Caribbean to a small upper-level low moving westward near 14N75W and to near northern Colombia. A very moist and unstable air mass present over the central Caribbean is interacting with this trough and leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 16N between 65W and 70W, including the Mona Passage and the coastal waters of Puerto Rico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are inland over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and coastal portions of Honduras. A weak pressure gradient in place is promoting generally light to gentle E to SE winds across the basin east of 72W, light and variable winds across central portions, and gentle SE winds NW portions. Seas are slight, 4 ft or less, as noted in recent altimeter satellite data.
For the forecast, widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean including the Yucatan Channel will persist into tonight, with additional activity expected between Haiti and Jamaica near a tropical wave. Similar weather is in the NE Caribbean including in the Atlantic Passages due to an induced trough. Gentle to locally moderate trades along with slight to moderate seas are expected through Sun, increasing slightly thereafter basinwide as the pressure gradient tightens in the wake of Gabrielle moving through the central Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds may pulse in the S-central portion of the basin Monday night through at least Wednesday night.
...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Gabrielle, and on the tropical waves across the eastern Atlantic.
A cold front has pushed south into the northern waters extending from near 31N291W to weak low pressure of 1019 mb near 29.5N32.5W, and continues from the low pressure to 26N40W and northwestward to 31N45W, where it transitions to a stationary front. Gentle to moderate northeast winds and seas are 5 to 6 ft are north of the frontal boundary. Elsewhere, high pressure of 1028 mb well north of area near 42W34W is building south-southwestward toward the aforementioned frontal boundary. A trough is over the far eastern Atlantic offshore western Africa from near 22N18W to 16N20W. No significant convection is occurring with this trough as it surrounded by a large area of late season Saharan Air layer (SAL). The pressure gradient in place is currently supporting mostly gentle to moderate easterly winds and moderate seas.
West of 55W and Gabrielle, a deep-layered upper trough along the eastern seaboard continues to support scattered moderate isolated strong convection from the central Bahamas north-northeastward to beyond 31N72W, where a surface trough lingers just west of this area. Moderate NE winds and seas prevail west of the surface trough and into the Florida coast, while gentle to moderate SE to S winds prevail between Gabrielle and the surface trough. Large E to SE swell from Gabrielle has recently crossed westward of 60W, producing seas of 7 to 9 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Gabrielle will move to 23.5N 58.0W Saturday morning, near 25.0N 59.4W Saturday afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 26.8N 60.6W Sun morning, reach near 28.6N 61.4W Sun afternoon, near 30.6N 61.6W Monday morning, and move N of the area to 33.0N 59.9W Monday afternoon. Gabrielle will change little in intensity as it moves well N of the area reaching 38.1N 51.3W Tuesday afternoon. A surface trough will persist off the SE U.S. coast to the northern Bahamas through at least the weekend enhancing convection in the vicinity. Otherwise, in the wake of Gabrielle, central Atlantic high pressure will build westward, generally providing for light to gentle winds over the central and western portions of the area, and for gentle to moderate winds over the eastern portion into midweek.
Forecaster: Scott Stripling, National Hurricane Center
