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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
8:05AM EDT (1205 UTC) Tuesday May 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC.

Tropical Waves
A tropical wave is analyzed near 25W south of 10N, moving west at 15 kt.Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted from 03N to 06N between 23W and 29W.

A tropical wave is located in the eastern Caribbean Sea along 72W, south of 16N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. This position corresponds with an area of enhanced moisture seen on total precipitable water imagery. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident near the tropical wave axis over the Caribbean.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 25W and 28W.

Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
1017 mb high pressure located over the central Gulf near 25N92W dominates the pattern. A 03 UTC scatterometer satellite pass showed this feature well, and also fresh NW winds off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate southerlies are observed in the western Gulf, with light breezes in the eastern Gulf. Buoys are reporting seas of 2-4 ft in the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche, with 1-3 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the central Gulf will continue to maintain gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas into mid week. SE winds will increase over the northwest Gulf tonight as the high pressure shifts east of the region. Farther south, fresh northeast winds will pulse west of the Yucatan peninsula each night through mid week.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
The gradient between high pressure in the Atlantic and lower pressure over South America is maintaining moderate to fresh easterlies in the central and eastern Caribbean. Winds are light to gentle in the NW Caribbean, where a surface trough is analyzed along 82W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean and 2 to 4 ft in the northwest Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed in the SW Caribbean along the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, surface ridging over the western Atlantic will continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds across the east and central Caribbean through mid week, with fresh to strong winds pulsing off Venezuela and northwest Colombia. Winds and seas across the basin may increase through late week as the ridge strengthens and broad low pressure forms over northern Central America.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form over northern Central America by the end of the week. Winds and seas across the basin may increase through late week as this broad low pressure forms and the ridge north of the area strengthens. Moist onshore flow may also promote heavy rainfall across northern Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula by late week.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
A mid-level trough is moving over the far western Atlantic, causing scattered weak showers over the central Bahamas. A 1023 mb high in the central Atlantic near 29N52W is causing gentle to moderate SE flow across the majority of the sub-tropical western Atlantic, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, a weak cold front extends from 31N257W to 28N40W to 31N50W. Winds are gentle on both sides of the front, but 8-10 ft swell is observed behind the front. Moderate to fresh persist south of 20N, with 8-10 ft seas south of 15N between 45W and the Lesser Antilles. The remainder of the basin is dominated by light to gentle winds and 4-8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge along 28N will shift east today ahead of a weak cold front approaching from the north. The front will move over the waters north of 28N between northeast Florida and 55W through late Wed. Weak ridging will build again over the region later in the week, supporting gentle to moderate winds through Sat.

Forecaster: Eric Christensen, National Hurricane Center

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