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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2:15AM EDT (0615 UTC) Friday Dec 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America), Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Guinea-Bissau and Sierra Leone, then runs southwestward to 05N18W. An ITCZ meanders westward from 05N18W to 04N31W to 05N47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted up to 110 nm along either side of the ITCZ between 21W and 30W, and south of the monsoon trough from 02N to 07N east of 16W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen up to 50 nm along either side of the ITCZ west of 30W.

...Discussion: Gulf Of America (Gulf Of Mexico)
A weak cold front extends westward from the Great Bahama Bank across the Florida Straits to 25N87W, then continues as a stationary front to 25N96W. Patchy showers are present near and up to 85 nm north of this boundary. A surface trough is causing widely scattered showers at the southwestern Gulf. A 1021 n mb high just south of the Florida Panhandle is supporting mainly gentle NE to SSE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft at the north-central and northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will stall overnight and dissipate. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh E to NE winds will prevail in the eastern Bay of Campeche and offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sat. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are expected over the remainder of the Gulf through Sat. Looking ahead, the next cold front is expected to enter the northern Gulf on Sun morning, bringing increasing winds and building seas behind the front. The front is expected to reach the southern Gulf along 23N by Monday morning and move south of the Gulf late Monday night.

...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Two surface trough embedded within the trade-wind flow are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the Gulf of Honduras, and the southwestern basin. Convergent trades are producing similar conditions near the Mona Passage. Fresh to strong ENE to E trades and seas at 7 to 9 ft are occurring at the south-central, and part of the southwestern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are found at the north- central basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, widespread fresh trade winds are expected over the central and eastern Caribbean through Sun morning as a moderate pressure gradient prevails between the Colombian low and migrating high pressure to the north along 29N. Strong E winds will pulse to near gale-force at night offshore of northern Colombia. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough seas in large E swell will prevail over the Atlantic waters and through the passages into the eastern basin through this weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front will approach the northwestern basin on Mon, accompanied by increasing winds and building seas behind the front. This front may reach from central Cuba to Belize Tuesday morning and begin to stall.

...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
A cold front curves southwestward from northwest of Bermuda across 31N69W and the northwest Bahamas to beyond the Florida Straits. Patchy showers are found near and up to 50 nm southeast of this feature. Another stronger cold front reaches southwestward from northeast of Bermuda across 31N64W to northeast of the southeast Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near and up to 175 nm southeast of this front. Scattered showers are noted at the central Atlantic near the western end of a frontal boundary, north of 26N between 35W and 40W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the very beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Fresh to strong with locally near-gale NW to SW winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are evident near the two cold fronts, north of 27N between 51W and 72W. Farther east, moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds with 10 to 12 ft seas in large NW swell. For the rest of the Atlantic waters north of 24N between 35W and the Florida/souther Georgia, gentle to moderate SE to S to SW winds and seas of 6 to 10 ft in large northerly swell. For the tropical waters from 05N to 20N/23N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, fresh to strong NE to ESE trades with 8 to 11 ft seas exist. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate with locally strong NE to E winds with 6 to 8 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, the two cold fronts will rapidly progress eastward and merge across the central Atlantic through Fri. Widespread strong to locally near gale-force SW winds will occur ahead of the leading front, generally north of 28N and east of 70W, into Friday afternoon. West of the cold fronts, fresh to locally strong W to NW winds are anticipated, north of 28N from offshore of Florida to 70W through late tonight. Rough seas in SW swell and then NW swell are expected north of 27N, with seas slowly subsiding from west to east into this weekend. Elsewhere in the central Atlantic, rough seas in mixed N and SE swell will prevail through Friday morning, with a new mixed swell reinforcing rough seas this weekend. Looking ahead, the next cold front is slated to push off the coast of the southeastern United States on Sun, with increasing winds and building seas expected behind the front.

Forecaster: Patrick Chan, National Hurricane Center

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