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Hurricane Humberto Tropical Depression Ten Invest 98

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
630 AM EDT Tuesday September 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC.

Active and Developing Storms
Hurricane Humberto is centered near 30.6N 74.3W at 17/0600 UTC or 495 nm W of Bermuda moving ENE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 29N- 32N between 73W-76W. Scattered moderate convection is seen stretching down to the Bahamas, from 23N-34N between 70W-73W. Humberto is expected to gradually increase forward speed through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is expected to approach Bermuda Wednesday night. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours and Humberto is expected to become a major hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.

A 1009 mb surface low is centered near 13N44W or about 870 nm E of the Lesser Antilles. A tropical wave extends from 02N-19N along the low. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 11N- 14N between 43W-46W. This system has changed little in organization since yesterday, but conditions are still expected to be conducive for the formation of a tropical depression during the next day or so while the system moves slowly northwestward to west-northwestward. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.

Tropical Waves
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 32W S of 18N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 13N- 16N between 30W-34W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also seen near the wave from 04N- 06N between 28W- 35W.

See section above for information on the tropical wave along 43W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 68W S of 19N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the northern portion of the wave from 14N-19N between 66W-68W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 77W S of 17N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are noted over the northern portion of the wave, affecting Jamaica and adjacent waters.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W to 13N28W to the low near 13N44W to 08N50W. The ITCZ begins near 08N50W to the coast of Guyana near 07N59W. Aside from the convection already discussed in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the vicinity of the monsoon trough and the eastern portion of the ITCZ between 14W- 53W.

Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
A 1009 mb low is located in the NW Gulf of Mexico near 28N96W with a trough extending along the low from 23N96W to 30N94W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the low from 26N- 30N between 93W- 97W. Some slight development is possible before the system moves inland along the northwestern Gulf coast Tuesday night. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding along portions of the central and upper Texas coastal areas later this week. This system has a low chance of development in the next 48 hours.

Numerous strong convection is seen moving along the southern Bay of Campeche, S of 19N between 93W-94W. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are also seen in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan coast from 19N-21N and E of 92W. There is also a trough analyzed along 92W. Upper level ridging is seen in the eastern basin with a 1014 mb surface high near 29N86W. Latest scatterometer data depicts light winds across the basin, and gentle to moderate winds near the low pressure area in the NW Gulf.

Weak surface low pressure off the coast of Texas will move inland through late today. High pressure will build over the north central Gulf tonight, supporting gentle to moderate winds through mid week, except for moderate to fresh winds off the west coast of Yucatan at night. The high pressure will dissipate later in the week in advance of a weak cold front that is forecast to move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico then stall and dissipate over the southeast Gulf Friday into Saturday. Fresh winds and building seas will follow the front over the eastern Gulf Friday into Saturday.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the two tropical waves currently over the Caribbean.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen moving across the Lesser Antilles from 10N-17N between 60W-65W. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are moving across the NW Caribbean from 16N-21N between 79W-89W. Numerous strong convection is moving off the Colombian coast, enhanced by the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, from 09N- 11N and E of 77W. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trades across the basin, with moderate to fresh winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras and the Gulf of Venezuela.

Moderate to fresh trade winds will dominate much of the basin. Long period northerly swell will starting pushing through the Atlantic Ocean passages today. A tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea will move west of the basin through mid week. Scattered thunderstorms and gusty winds accompany a second tropical wave currently in the eastern Caribbean that will move across the central Caribbean Sea Wednesday and Thursday, and through the western Caribbean Sea Friday and Saturday. A low pressure center developing east of the area will move toward the Atlantic Ocean offshore waters of the Leeward Islands by late Thursday and Friday, possibly as a tropical cyclone.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Humberto and the tropical waves moving across the basin.

A 1019 mb surface high is over the central Atlantic near 30N51W. Scattered thunderstorms are also seen in the central Atlantic from 27N-31N between 57W-60W. To the east, a cold front enters the discussion area near 31N31W to 29N34W, then stalls from 29N34W to 25N53W. Scattered showers are noted along the front.

Northerly swell will follow across the open waters in the wake of Humberto. Looking ahead, a low pressure center developing tropical Atlantic will move toward waters off the Leeward Islands by late Thursday and Friday, then north of the Virgin Islands by Saturday, possibly as a tropical cyclone.

Forecaster: Amanda Reinhart, National Hurricane Center


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