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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
8:15PM EDT (0015 UTC) Tuesday Jan 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America), Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC.

Active and Developing Storms
Agadir Gale Warning: A 1035 mb high is analyzed near 39N24W. The enhanced pressure gradient between this high and low pressure over the Mediterranean supports strong to gale-force NE winds offshore Morocco, currently N of 20N between the W coast of Africa and 35W. Rough seas are seen in this area as well. Winds are expected to continue at gale-force speeds with severe gusts through Wednesday afternoon, and Meteo-France has accordingly issued a Gale Warning for the Agadir zone to 07/09 UTC.

For more information, please visit Meteo-France's website at: wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and extends to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 04N41W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03.5N to 07.5N east of 18W, as well as from 04N to 08N between 24W and 50W.

...Discussion: Gulf Of America (Gulf Of Mexico)
A surface trough extends over the northeastern Gulf from the Florida Big Bend to 29N85W to 25N88W. No significant convection is occurring near this trough. Another trough, an old frontal remnant, extends through the Straits of Florida between 80W and 88W. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the Gulf, with a 1018 mb high centered along the Florida coast near 26.5N82.5W. Moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are occurring over the western Gulf, with winds then becoming SW to the north of 26N and into the Louisiana coast. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE winds and moderate seas are expected west of 95W through Wed. Widespread moderate to fresh S to SE winds will develop over the central and western Gulf by Wednesday night, with strong winds and rough seas possible offshore of Texas and northeastern Mexico on Thu, as a storm system forms over the central U.S. A strong cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf Friday night into Sat, with widespread fresh to strong winds and rough seas prevailing in the wake of the front, as it sweeps across the basin this weekend. Gale force winds will be possible offshore of Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico Saturday through Sun night.

...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
An Atlantic cold front extends southwestward across the northern Leeward Islands to near 16N68W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail north of this boundary and extend westward south of Hispaniola, where scattered weak to moderate showers prevail. Seas there are generally 2 to 4 ft. A 1012 mb low center previously near 17.5N80W has drifted westward and opened up into a trough, extending from 20N83W to the south-southeast to near 11N78W. Moderate NE to N winds prevail from the lee of Cuba southward across the western basin W of the trough, where seas are 3 to 6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and locally rough seas will develop over the south-central Caribbean this evening as the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low tightens. Winds may pulse to near- gale force offshore of Colombia each night starting on Wed. The tightening pressure gradient will also support pulsing of moderate to fresh NE winds through the Windward Passage, in the lee of Cuba and south of Hispaniola through late week. High pressure will further build north of the area by late week, supporting widespread fresh trade winds over much of the central Caribbean.

...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Please see the Active and Developing Storms section above for information on a Gale Warning offshore Agadir.

A cold front extends from 31N47W to a 1010 mb low near 23N59W. A cold front then extends from this low southwestward across the northern Leeward Islands. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring within 240 nm either side of the front, north of 20N between 43W and 60W. Mostly moderate winds are on either side of the front and low. A shear line is analyzed to the NW of the front from 30N54W to 21N66W to 23N77W. Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail N of 20N and within 300 nm W of the shearline, with a 90 nm band of fresh to strong NE along the shearline to the north of 25N. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft W of the front and low, except 8 to 9 ft within the band of fresh to strong winds. A ridge extends from a 1024 mb Bermuda High southwest to the NW Bahamas, and is producing moderate or less anticyclonic winds across the waters north of 25N and west of 73W, becoming fresh SW winds north of 30N between 74W and 77W. Seas there are 3 to 5 ft in N-NE swell and to 6 ft in the fresh SW winds.

Surface ridging prevails across much of the remaining basin. Outside of the region mentioned the Active and Developing Storms section, fresh to strong trades and moderate seas are seen from 05N to 14N between 25W and 50W. Much of the remaining Atlantic is seeing moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between high pressure building across the area and a slow moving cold front in the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh NE to E winds over much of the waters east of 65W. Rough seas N of 23N and east of 65W will subside through Wednesday morning. Elsewhere, locally fresh S to SW winds are expected well offshore of Florida into Wednesday as a surface trough develops to the north. High pressure will further build across the area by late week.

Forecaster: Scott Stripling, National Hurricane Center

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