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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2:05AM EDT (0605 UTC) Friday Oct 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC.

Active and Developing Storms
Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta, at 30/0000 UTC, is about 80 nm to the east of the coast of New Jersey. The last forecast/advisory was written by the NHC at 29/2100 UTC. The maximum sustained wind speeds were 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots, according to the last NHC bulletin. The ZETA low pressure center has been absorbed by a frontal boundary. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 90 nm of the ZETA low pressure center in the N semicircle, and within 90 nm to the north of the accompanying frontal boundary. Scattered moderate to isolated strong also is from 32N to 34N between 76W and 78W, and from 35N to 37N between 72W and 75W. Additional information about this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts. issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W/62W, from 19N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the waters, within 120 nm to the east of the tropical wave and within 100 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 16N southward to land. The precipitation pattern has become a little more concentrated this evening. The atmospheric conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this disturbance during the next few days. It is likely for a tropical depression to form by the time that the system reaches the western Caribbean Sea early next week. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium.

Tropical Waves
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W from 10N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 240 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

A surface trough is along 12N54W 06N52W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong is from 10N to 13N between 46W and 53W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W/62W, from 19N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the waters, within 120 nm to the east of the tropical wave and within 100 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 16N southward to land.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/70W from 22N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 15N in the Caribbean Sea to 25N in the Atlantic Ocean between 65W and 72W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from the tropical wave westward.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from 23N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is between 80W and the tropical wave.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W to 06N24W 05N27W 05N35W 07N40W, and 07N50W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 01N to 03N between 24W and 27W, from 07N to 09N between 35W and 40W, and from 04N to 10N between 42W and 48W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 20N southward from 60W eastward.

Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
A cold front passes through north central Florida near 30N82W, into the south central Gulf of Mexico near 22N90W, into the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is to the south and southeast of the line that runs from 20N92W to 19N96W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere within 60 nm to 90 nm to the SE of the cold front.

The current cold front, that extends from northern Florida to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, will move southeast of the area on Friday. Fresh to strong northerly winds are possible in the SW Gulf of Mexico through Friday. A strong cold front will move into the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and extend from southern Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds are expected across the region from Sunday through Tuesday.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Three tropical waves are in the Caribbean Sea. One is along 61W/62W. The second tropical wave is along 69W/70W. The third tropical wave is along 83W/84W. Precipitation is related to each tropical wave. Please, read the Active & Developing Storms section for more details.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from 73W in northern Colombia, beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 15N southward from 75W westward.

Active weather, associated with a tropical wave moving across the Lesser Antilles, will shift westward into the eastern section and the central section of the Caribbean Sea, through Friday night. It is possible that an area of low pressure may form from this tropical wave, in the SW Caribbean Sea, during this weekend.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 32N26W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward.

A cold front will move off the southeastern coast of the U.S.A. tonight. The cold front will extend from near Bermuda to southern Florida on Friday, and then stall and dissipate from 28N65W to the Florida Keys on Saturday. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected to the east of the front, across the northern waters, through Friday. A strong cold front will sweep across the forecast area, from Sunday night through Tuesday. Expect strong north to northeast winds and building seas, to the NW of the cold front.

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