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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
8:15AM EDT (1215 UTC) Thursday July 09 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of America (Gulf of Mexico), Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC.

Active and Developing Storms
Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South America will support strong to near gale-force northeast to east trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela into the weekend. Winds are forecast to pulse to gale- force off the coast of Colombia Friday night and again Saturday night. Gale-force winds are expected in the Gulf of Venezuela Friday night and Saturday night. Seas are expected to peak around 14 ft off Colombia Saturday night.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W south of 16N moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring near the wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66W/67W south of 18N moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are east of the wave to near 61W from 13N to 15N. Similar activity is from 16N to 17N between 64W and 68W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along a position from 19N73W to 14N73W to inland Colombia near 11N74W. It is moving westward around 15 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave. Numerous strong and large convective clusters have recently formed over Colombia from 05N to 11N between 72W and 75.5W.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 21N16W and continues southwestward to 10N25W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N36W. It resumes at 07N39W to 07N47W and to the coast of Guyana near 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 44W-49W.

...Discussion: Gulf Of America (Gulf Of Mexico)
A relatively weak ridge axis extends from the Atlantic westward across central Florida and to Gulf. It is generally providing for gentle to moderate east to southeast winds south of 26N east of 94W, and light to gentle southeast to south-southwest winds north of 26N. Light and variable winds are south of 26N west of 94W. Latest altimeter satellite data passes and buoy observations indicate light seas throughout, except for moderate seas south of 25N east of 85W, including the Straits of Florida.

A mid-level trough along within a very moist and unstable environment is generating scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the SW Gulf. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere south of about 28N.

For the forecast, the high pressure ridge will change little through Sat, then shift slightly southeastward afterward. The weather pattern will support gentle to moderate east to southeast winds south of 26N east of 94W, and light to gentle southeast to south-southwest winds north of 26N into the weekend. Light and variable winds are south of 26N west of 94W. These winds will gentle to moderate east to southeast winds tonight and change little into next week. The exception will be occasional fresh to strong northeast to east winds offshore the Yucatan peninsula at night. The shower and thunderstorm being produced by the mid- level trough will persist into tonight as it lifts to the north.

...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Please refer to the Active and Developing Storms section above for details on gale conditions offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela that are expected to begin in the short-term.

The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South America continues to result in fresh to near gale-force trades over the central Caribbean. Seas with these trades are in the range of 8 to 11 ft. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of Honduras along with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Similar winds are in the northern portion of the Windward Passage. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, mostly fresh trades are over the basin, except for trades of gentle to moderate speeds in the northwestern Caribbean. Fresh east winds are south of Cuba to near 21N. Seas are 6 to 8 ft south of 18N and east of 83W, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere over the basin.

A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean passing just to the south of Puerto Rico is accompanied by fresh to strong trades along with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms that are currently present from 13N to 16N between 61W and 65W.

An upper-level trough that extends from near western Cuba east- northeastward to a large upper-level low just east of the southeastern Bahamas has helped to destabilize the atmosphere over the northern part of the basin west of Haiti. Clusters of scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident west of about 80W, including the Gulf of Honduras and the waters adjacent to Belize and the southern Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are north of 18N between Haiti and 80W.

For the forecast, trades over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to fresh to strong speeds in the late afternoons and evenings through early next week. The trades associated to the tropical wave will combine with those trades already present in the central Caribbean beginning tonight as the wave advances westward.

...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
A 1026 mb high center is located near 27N46W while a 1023 mb high center is near 27N62W. These features are anchoring a broad area of high pressure that covers the area north of 20N and west of about 18W. The associated ridge axis along 27N stretches westward across central Florida and to the Gulf of America. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics is sustaining fresh to strong east winds between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola and between the central Bahamas and Cuba. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are over these waters. Farther east, mostly fresh northeast to east trades are south of 21N between the Lesser Antilles and 44W as well as over the far eastern Atlantic from 18N to 26N east of 44W to the coast of Africa. Seas are about 5 to 7 ft over these waters. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds remain along with seas of 4 to 6 ft.

A stationary frontal boundary extends from 31N37W to 30.5N42W and northwest from there to beyond 31N47W. No significant convection is present with this feature. however, an area of scattered showers is seen to its southwest from 28N to 31N between 47W and 53W.

A broad upper-level low moving westward is identified on water vapor imagery just approaching the southeastern Bahamas near 23N73W. To its east, an area of mostly mid and high-level clouds is noted from 20N to 27N between 67W and 74W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are embedded within this area of cloudiness as it shifts toward the west-northwest.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure ridge near 27N will change little through the period. The present weather pattern will generally support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, and light to gentle winds north of 23N, except north of 29N where moderate to fresh south to southwest winds will prevail through Saturday night. Strong winds along with moderate to rough seas are expected at night north of Hispaniola, including the approaches to the Windward Passage through early next week.

Forecaster: Jorge Aguirre-Echevarria, National Hurricane Center

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