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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
8:15PM EDT (0015 UTC) Sun May 10 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America), Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC.
Active and Developing Storms
Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure well north of the region and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will lead to gale force winds off northwest Colombia tonight and on Sun night along with very rough seas. An after scatterometer satellite pass captured some of these winds. This gradient will weaken some early next week as a cold front moves into the western Atlantic allowing for the pulsing gale conditions to end Mon.
Tropical Waves
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave was introduced near the coast of Africa along 17W from 01N to 09N based on satellite imagery and on upper-level model guidance. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is behind the wave from 01N to 08N between 08W and the wave.
A weak central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 50W south 09N. It is moving westward around 10 kt. No deep is noted at the present time.
Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough axis is confined inland over Africa. The ITCZ axis extends from 03N18W to 01N25W, then along the Equator to near 44W. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of the ITCZ within 60 nm of 04.5N29W.
...Discussion: Gulf Of America (Gulf Of Mexico)
A dissipating stationary front extends from near Pensacola, Florida to Lake Ponchatrain, Louisiana and continues to just inland Texas. A surface trough is along a position from near 27.5N94W to 25N96W, and southeastward from there to just north of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. These two features are inducing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms within about 60 to 120 nm of the northern Gulf coast. Outside of the convection, most of the basin remains under a fairly light gradient that is generally allowing for moderate or weaker southeast winds along with slight to moderate seas.
For the forecast, the scattered showers and thunderstorms as stated earlier will linger into Sun. These showers and thunderstorms should weaken Sun afternoon and evening as the front gradually dissipates. Farther south, winds will pulse to strong near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings through Sun night. Looking ahead, another cold front will move into the northern Gulf waters early Monday morning, and reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late Mon, followed by moderate to locally strong N to NE winds. Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected off Veracruz Monday night into Tuesday morning. Scattered to numerous showers and strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front. Conditions will improve across the Gulf Tuesday night into Wednesday as the front weakens.
...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Please read the Special Features for information on an ongoing gale warning for offshore Colombia.
Aside from the gale warning information, the pressure gradient between broad high pressure north of the basin and lower pressures in the deep tropics is resulting in fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds and locally rough seas in the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, the broad high pressure north of the Caribbean will sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds with rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through midweek next week, including the Gulf of Venezuela. These winds are forecast to reach gale-force off northwestern Colombia tonight and on Sun night. Fresh to strong with locally near- gale E winds and rough seas are also anticipated in the Gulf of Honduras through Sun night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean.
...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
A dissipating stationary front is analyzed from near 31N58W to 30.5N70W and continuing westward to inland northern Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along the boundary west of about 73W. For waters north of 21N, an overall weak pressure gradient, mainly influenced by subtropical ridging from high pressure north of the region, is leading to moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. The exception is in the far northeastern Atlantic, where rough seas are present north of the Canary Islands and east of about 25W. Latest scatterometer satellite data indicates moderate to fresh trades south of 21N. Moderate seas are with these trades.
For the forecast west of 55W, A cold front, stronger than previous ones, is expected to follow a similar path Monday through Tue, followed by fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are possible near this second front. Meanwhile, the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic will support fresh to locally strong winds off northern Hispaniola through Monday night.
Forecaster: Jorge Aguirre-Echevarria, National Hurricane Center
