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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
8:05AM EDT (1205 UTC) Saturday Jun 12 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC.

Tropical Waves
The axis of a tropical wave is near 26W from just west of the Cabo Verde Islands southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 25W and 35W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 50W from 15N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 43W and 53W. An additional area of similar convection is noted from 02S to 03N between 44W and 51W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 75W from 18N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 72W and 77W including over portions of northern Colombia and far NW Venezuela.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal and Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W and continues to 05N25W to 1011 mb low pressure near 07N29W to 04N35W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N35W to 07N46W. No additional convection is noted other than described in the tropical wave section above.

Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring in the Bay of Campeche south of 22N with intense lightning. This convection is supported by an upper level anticyclone over Central America. Weak surface high pressure ridging extends across the Gulf of Mexico, with a surface trough over the E Gulf from 27N85W to 23N88. Light to gentle SE winds in the eastern Gulf veer to SE-S in the western Gulf where speeds are gentle to moderate. Earlier scatterometer data showed an area of fresh to strong winds in the area of deep convection in the Bay of Campeche. Seas are 1-3 ft throughout the basin, except higher in and near the area of deep convection.

For the forecast, weak high pressure ridging will remain over the central Gulf of Mexico through early next week supporting mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin. A trough of low pressure is expected to form by early next week over the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Some slow development is possible thereafter as this system drifts northward.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Fresh to strong winds are in the S central Caribbean between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressures over northern Colombia. Fresh E-SE winds are in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere, except light to gentle in the lee of Cuba and also south of 11N. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the S central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere except 3 ft or less in the lee of Cuba and south of 11N.

For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure along 28N combined with lower pressure over Central America and Colombia will support fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through at least Wednesday night. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except light to gentle south of 11N. A tropical wave over northern Colombia and moving toward the western Caribbean has limited shower activity associated with it over water. A new tropical wave will move into the E Caribbean Mon.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
A surface trough is analyzed along the Space Coast of Florida from 30N80W to 27N80W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 27N to 30N between the trough and 78W. Otherwise, high pressure ridging dominates the basin anchored by a 1024 mb high center just north of the area near 32N39W, extending west- southwest through 29N55W to across the northern Bahamas. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are noted under the ridge, with moderate to fresh S-SW flow off the coast of northern Florida. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail elsewhere, except fresh to locally strong NE winds in the vicinity of the Canary Islands. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range west of 65W, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 65W, a ridge of high pressure along 28N will sink southward this weekend. Winds will increase up to a fresh breeze north of 28N through the weekend as a cold front moves by north of the area. Winds may again strengthen to fresh north of 28N on Tuesday and Wednesday as another cold front moves by north of the area.

Forecaster: Jeffrey Lewitsky, National Hurricane Center

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