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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
742 PM EDT Tuesday May 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC.

Active and Developing Storms
...Subtropical Depression Andrea...

As of 2100 UTC, Andrea has weakened to a post-tropical system, centered near 30.8N 68.3W, moving ENE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with higher gust. Scattered showers are noted on either side of the low between 65W-73W. The system will continue weakening through the next few days.

...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 21W from 10N southward, moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 100 nm on either side of the wave axis mainly from 02N-07N.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and extends to 06N19W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave near 04N23W and extends to 03N39W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is near and within 100 nm north of the ITCZ between 25W-37W and near the coast of Brazil between 46W-52W.

Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
A 1017 mb surface high centered in the western Atlantic extends westward across the basin. Tight pressure gradient between the this high and a 1000 mb low centered in northern Mexico are keeping fresh to strong southeast flow across the central and western Gulf, while light to gentle winds prevail east of 88W. Smoke from fires across Mexico continues to be noted in satellite data and observations over the western Gulf. Although the smoke is not as dense as previous days, it is still noticeable with hazy conditions mainly west of 93W and south of 27N.

Strong low pres across the Central Plains will weaken during the next couple of days and allow strong SE to S winds to gradually diminish through Fri. Surface trough moving W from the Yucatan will generate strong winds over the bay of Campeche each night through Sunday night. Smoke from fires across southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies and reduce visibilities over the western Gulf and the Bay of Campeche the next several days.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Upper level diffluence is maintaining broad area of cloudiness with embedded scattered showers across the central Caribbean between 74W-83W. Some of this activity is noted across Hispaniola and adjacent waters. Moderate trades cover much of the basin, while locally fresh winds are pulsing at night over the south- central Caribbean.

High pressure across the W Atlantic will maintain fresh to occasionally strong trades across most of the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Thu night, before weakening modestly into the weekend.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Refer to section above for details on the now post-tropical Andrea.

High pressure to the west of Andrea is supporting fair weather across the far west Atlantic. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb high near 33N50W and a 1021 mb high near 32N21W. A stationary front is analyzed between these two highs from 31N38W to 26N46W.

Andrea will continue weakening as it moves ENE tonight through Wednesday as it begins to interact with a cold front sinking S into the region. The cold front will sink S across the northern waters Wednesday and Wednesday night and eventually stall from E to W between 24N to 25N Fri. Elsewhere moderate winds will generally prevail across the region through Sat.



Forecaster: Evelyn Rivera-Acevedo, National Hurricane Center


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