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Hurricane Nigel Forecaster's Discussion & Computer Models
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Hurricane Nigel Forecaster's Discussion # |
| A graphic showing several computer modeled projected tracks is at the bottom of this page. |
Hurricane Nigel Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023 300 AM GMT Fri Sep 22 2023 Nigel has not quite completed its transition to a post-tropical cyclone. A burst of deep convection formed near the center a few hours ago, and it is therefore still considered a tropical system. Based on a partial ASCAT pass and the latest satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt for this advisory. Cold ocean waters and significant vertical wind shear should cause Nigel to weaken further. The hurricane should become a powerful extratropical cyclone within about 12 hours. As noted previously, Nigel continues to grow in size and an expansion of the 34-kt wind field is expected during the next couple of days. The hurricane is moving east-northeastward at 32 kt. An east- northeastward to northeastward motion along the southeastern side of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough is expected during the next day or so. Beyond a day, Nigel should rotate around the eastern side of a large extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic. The two features should merge in about 60 h and the official forecast now shows dissipation at the time. The model guidance remains tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast lies near the center of the envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 45.1N 36.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 47.5N 30.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 23/0000Z 51.3N 25.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 23/1200Z 55.0N 23.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 24/0000Z 56.9N 25.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci |
The Forecaster's Discussion above often refers to several computer models. The graphic below includes multiple projected paths, showing what the different computer models indicate. The black line is the NHC (National Hurricane Center) path. This graphic is not an official NHC product. For the official NHC projected path of Hurricane Nigel click here.
click image for a larger view and more models
For more information about tropical storm computer models click here.
