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Hurricane Humberto Tropical Storm Jerry

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 AM EDT Wednesday September 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC.

Active and Developing Storms
Hurricane Humberto is centered near 31.7N 69.6W at 18/0900 UTC or 250 nm W of Bermuda moving ENE at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane. Numerous strong convection is within 80 nm in the NE semicircle and 60 nm in the SW and SE semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 300 nm in the NE quadrant, 90 nm in the S semicircle, and 150 nm in the NW quadrant. Humberto will continue to move ENE with a gradual increase in forward speed through early Thursday, followed by a northeastward to north- northeastward motion through Friday. On the forecast track, the core of Humberto is expected to pass just to the northwest and north of Bermuda later tonight. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a powerful hurricane through early Thursday. A steady weakening trend should begin later on Thursday.

T.D. Imelda has moved inland across Houston, Texas. See the Weather Prediction Center for advisories on this system.

Tropical Storm Jerry, previously Tropical Depression Ten, is centered near 14.1N 47.7W at 18/0900 UTC or 830 nm E of the Leeward Islands moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 200 nm in the W quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is within 200 nm in the E semicircle, and elsewhere within 250 nm in the W semicircle. A west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will be near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night or Friday. Further strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Jerry is expected to become a hurricane by the time it moves near the northern Leeward Islands.

Tropical Waves
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 38W S of 19N is moving W at 15 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are noted from 11N- 16N between 34W- 40W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave with an axis along 73W S of 20N is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is east of the wave from 13N-19N between 65W-71W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave with an axis along 81 W S of 18N is moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted along this wave at this time.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W to 10N28W to 15N43W. The ITCZ begins west of T.S. Jerry near 20N52W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. Aside from the convection already discussed in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 05N-15N between 12W- 36W.

Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
Numerous strong convection being caused by T.D. Imelda is occurring across the NW Gulf, from 28N-30N between 93W-97W. A surface trough is analyzed in the Bay of Campeche from 19N92W to 22N91W. Scattered thunderstorms are seen in the Bay of Campeche from 19N-22N between 92W-96W. Otherwise, strong upper level ridging is stretching across the Gulf into the U.S. A 1015 mb surface high pressure is analyzed in the central Gulf near 27N88W. The latest scatterometer data depicts calm to light anticyclonic winds in the eastern Gulf with gentle to moderate southerly winds in the NW Gulf.

Showers and thunderstorms will persist into the morning off the north Texas coast due to T.D. Imelda, now inland, but winds and seas continue to diminish over the northwest Gulf. The low pressure will continue to weaken as it moves farther inland through Friday. Meanwhile, high pressure will build over the north central Gulf in the wake of Imelda tonight, supporting gentle to moderate winds through mid week, except for moderate to fresh winds off the west coast of Yucatan at night. The high pressure will dissipate later in the week in advance of a weak cold front that is forecast to move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico then stall and dissipate over the southeast Gulf Fri into Saturday. Fresh winds and building seas will follow the front over the eastern Gulf Friday into Sunday.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the two tropical waves currently over the Caribbean.

Scattered moderate convection is moving south of Cuba across the Cayman Islands, from 19N-22N between 78W-84W. Scattered thunderstorms are also noted S of Haiti and near NW Jamaica. There are also scattered thunderstorms off the eastern coast of Honduras and in the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered thunderstorms are being enhanced by the eastern Pacific monsoon trough in the SW Gulf S of 11N and E of 77W. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trades prevailing across most of the basin except east of 69W, where moderate to fresh winds are depicted.

Tropical Storm Jerry will move to 14.8N 49.4W this afternoon, 15.7N 52.0W Thursday morning, 16.8N 54.9W Thursday afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.9N 57.9W Friday morning off the Leeward Islands, then move to 20.2N 64.2W Saturday morning. Jerry will change little in intensity as it moves the east of the Bahamas Saturday and Sunday. Moderate trade winds will persist elsewhere over the Caribbean.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Humberto, T.S. Jerry, and the tropical wave moving across the basin.

A 1018 mb surface high is over the central Atlantic near 30N39W. A surface trough is analyzed from 18N54W to 24N55W with scattered thunderstorms seen within 100 nm on either side of the trough. To the east, a cold front enters the discussion area near 31N25W to 29N32W, then stalls from 29N32W to 21N51W. Showers are seen along the front.

Hurricane Humberto will pass north of Bermuda Wednesday night and farther into the central north Atlantic waters into Friday. Tropical Storm Jerry will move to 14.8N 49.4W this afternoon, 15.7N 52.0W Thursday morning, 16.8N 54.9W Thursday afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.9N 57.9W Friday morning off the Leeward Islands, then move to 20.2N 64.2W Saturday morning. Jerry will change little in intensity as it moves the east of the Bahamas Saturday and Sunday.

Forecaster: Amanda Reinhart, National Hurricane Center


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