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Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 153 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC.
Active Storms
. A 1007 mb low presently just N of the W tip of Grand Bahama Island will move N to 30N79W in 12 hours. The pressure gradient between this low and a high to the east will then result in gale force southeast winds from 30N-31N between 73W-74W, with seas to 12 ft. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast product under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC and under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 for further details.
Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ

(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums) The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast from 07N12W to 02N25W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 02N25W to 02N32W to the South American coast near 02S45W. Isolated moderate convection is within 240 nm of the ITCZ axis between 25W-42W.
Gulf Of Mexico
As of 24/0300 UTC a cold front extends over the W Gulf of Mexico from N Florida near 30N83W to 23N90W to S of Tampico Mexico near 20.5N97W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over N Florida, however, the remainder of the front over the Gulf is void of precipitation. 20 kt N winds are N of the front. Broken low clouds are also N of the front. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the Gulf with axis along 85W. Strong subsidence is over the entire Gulf. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to extend from the Straits of Florida near 25N80W to the N Yucatan Peninsula with scattered showers. 15-20 kt NW winds will be N of front.
Caribbean Sea
A 1008 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 10N73W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the low. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is along the S coast of Hispaniola. Similar convection is over N Belize. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over E Puerto Rico and St Croix. More scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands, Panama, Costa Rica, Honduras, and Guatemala. 20-25 kt E wind are noted over the E Caribbean E of 74W. In the upper levels, a broad ridge is noted with axis along 70W. Upper level moisture is over the NE Caribbean from Hispaniola to the Leeward Islands. Expect over the next 24 hours for additional scattered showers to be over Puerto Rico, and the Leeward Islands.
Presently lightning detection shows thunderstorms along the S coast of Hispaniola. Scattered showers are elsewhere over the island. Expect more scattered moderate convection and scattered showers over the island for the next 24 hours. Expect the heaviest convection over the afternoon and evening hours, during maximum heating.
Atlantic Ocean
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the Bahamas. A 1022 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N63W. The tail end of a dissipating cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N34W to 28N39W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A 1020 mb high is centered W of the Canary Islands near 29N20W. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level low is centered over the E Atlantic near 35N37W enhancing convection mostly E of the center. Expect over the next 24 hours for the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Bahamas to move E. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa