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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
...Resent NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Friday Apr 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC.

Active and Developing Storms
Possible Strong Thunderstorms and Heavy Downpours In Hispaniola: A persistent surface trough extends southwestward from near 30N61W across eastern Dominican Republic to near 16N70W. This feature maintains a very moist southerly flow across Hispaniola, while strong divergent winds aloft persist across much of the Caribbean Sea. This combination will remain conducive for strong thunderstorm activity over and near Hispaniola through Friday. These strong thunderstorms are capable of producing heavy downpours, increasing the chance for flash flooding, especially in hilly terrains and low-lying areas.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Guinea Bissau and Guinea, then runs southwestward to 08N17W. An ITCZ continues from 08N17W through 01N30W to north of Sao Luis, Brazil at 01S45W. Widely scattered moderate convection is found up to 200 nm north, and 100 nm south of the ITCZ. No significant convection is seen near the monsoon trough.

...Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
A surface ridge reaches southwestward from a 1021 mb high at the northeastern Gulf to near Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to locally strong NE to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are found near the northern Yucatan Peninsula, at the eastern Bay of Campeche and northwestern Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas exist at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will tighten over the Gulf beginning tonight, causing fresh to strong E to SE winds to spread across the entire Gulf through Sun night. Seas will build to 10 ft in the northwestern Gulf on Sun. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to between fresh and strong near the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through early next week.

...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Please read the Active & Developing Storms section about the potential for strong thunderstorms and heavy downpours in Hispaniola.

Convergent winds north of an equatorial trough are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the northern Panama coast, and the Providence and Santa Catalina Islands. Fresh to strong NE to E trade winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are present at the south-central basin, near the ABC Islands and Windward Passage. Gentle ENE to E winds along with seas of 2 to 4 ft exist south of Hispaniola and near the Cayman Islands. Gentle to moderate NE to E trades and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, a 1022 mb Bermuda High near 29N72W will sustain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds elsewhere, including the Windward Passage through Fri. By Friday evening, further strengthening of the high will also introduce fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras, lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and just south of Hispaniola through early next week.

...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Please read the Active & Developing Storms section about the potential for strong thunderstorms and heavy downpours in Hispaniola.

A persistent surface trough extends southwestward from near 30N61W to beyond the eastern Dominican Republic. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 50 nm west, and 150 nm east of the trough axis. An upper-level trough reaches southward from an upper low near 27N33W to 06N37W. Widely scattered moderate convection is present near the low from 24N to 29N between 27W and 33W. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up farther southeast, north of the Cabo Verde Islands from 20N to 24N between the Western Sahara coast and 24W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Fresh with locally strong NNE to NE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are noted at the central Atlantic north of 20N between 30W and 45W. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas dominate north of 25N between the northwestern Africa coast and 20W. Otherwise, gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft are seen north of 20N between the Africa and Florida-Georgia coast. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NNW to NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist from 04N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 40W. For the tropical Atlantic from 04N to 20N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades with 4 to 7 ft seas are present. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate S swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front exiting the southeast U.S. coast will merge with the aforementioned persistent surface trough late Fri. This cold front will reach from 31N58W to eastern Cuba by Saturday morning, and from near 25N55W to Hispaniola by Sun morning, then stall and weaken into a trough over the central Atlantic late Sun through Monday night. N swell behind the front will build seas to between 8 and 11 ft over most of the waters northeast of the Bahamas by Sun. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will result in fresh to strong N to NE winds from late Friday through Sun. By late Sun, these winds are expected to be at mainly fresh south of 29N and west of 60W. At the same time, fresh to strong W to NW winds and building seas are anticipated north of 27N between 35W and 45W.

Forecaster: Patrick Chan, National Hurricane Center