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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Tropical Weather Discussion
...retransmitted rrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1232 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC.
Active Storms
. A developing area of low pressure analyzed currently as a 1000 mb low centered near 38N64W is forecast to strengthen during the next 24 hours while moving eastward. The associated cold front extends from the low center to 34N70W to the South Carolina coast near 33N79W and is expected to extend into the SW North Atlc waters generating near gale to gale force SW to W winds generally N of 29N between the front and 60W. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.
Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ

(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums) 04N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 04N20W to 01N40W to the Equator near 43W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 05N between 26W-51W.
Gulf Of Mexico
A middle to upper level ridge is noted on water vapor imagery over much of the Gulf basin this evening with axis along 86W. To the west of the ridge axis...southwesterly flow aloft prevails between the ridging and an approaching middle to upper level trough with axis currently over western Texas and NW Mexico. The troughing supports a weak area of low pressure across Texas and a stationary front extending from Galveston Bay S-SW to the coast of Mexico near Tampico. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring across portions of the NW Gulf N of 23N W of 92W...including interior portions of Louisiana and SE Texas. The front is expected to become diffuse through Friday as surface ridging remains anchored to the east across the Florida peninsula and Bahamas. The next cold front is forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Saturday night late into Sunday.
Caribbean Sea
Tranquil conditions prevail across the basin this evening. Much of the quiet weather is due in large part to N-NW flow aloft... strong subsidence...and dry air as noted on water vapor imagery. Moderate to occasional fresh trades are depicted on recent scatterometer data...with slightly higher trades occurring within close proximity to the coast of Colombia. This overall synoptic pattern is expected to persist as high pressure will remain anchored to the N across the SW North Atlc through Saturday. The next significant cold front is expected to enter the NW Caribbean Sunday night late into Monday shifting winds northerly across the western Caribbean early next week.
Moderate NE winds prevail across the island and adjacent coastal waters this evening. Winds will diminish slightly through the next 24-36 hours as the pressure gradient weakens and high pressure anchored to the N of the island across the SE Bahamas.
Atlantic Ocean
A middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor imagery in the vicinity of 34N68W that supports the Special Features low pressure area and associated cold front. Aside from the developing gale force winds...scattered showers and tstms are occurring N of 28N between 56W-71W. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc waters are under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high centered across the NW Bahamas. Farther east...another middle to upper level trough axis extends from 31N45W SW to 14N61W and support a cold front analyzed from 32N29W to 29N34W that becomes stationary to 26N50W to 26N58W. Isolated showers are occurring within 90 nm either side of the front. The weak front bridges between two high pressure areas... one a 1022 mb high centered near 32N37W and the second a 1024 mb high centered near 33N21W. Finally...a surface trough remains analyzed SE of the Windward Islands from 07N58W to 13N57W providing focus for scattered showers and isolated tstms within 240 nm either side of a line from 07N60W to 20N43W.