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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
638 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 03N20W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 04N between 28W and 32W.

Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
A ridge reaching east to west from southwest Florida to the central coast of Texas will shift eastward ahead of a cold front moving off the coast of Texas currently. Light to moderate E to SE winds are noted over most of the Gulf, with 1 to 3 ft seas in the northeast Gulf and 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere. Visibility is unrestricted across the Gulf, and no showers or thunderstorms.

Fresh to occasionally strong northerly flow will follow the front over the northwest Gulf this morning, but remain generally within 60 nm of the north Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts and diminish this afternoon. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend area to northern portion of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas this evening. Fresh northerly winds will reinforce the front tonight into Fri. The front will continue south over the eastern Gulf Fri, but stall then drift north over the western Gulf. Fresh to strong easterly winds are possible over the northeast Gulf into Sat as high pressure builds north of the area in the wake of the front. The front will stall and weaken off southwest Florida late Sat into Sun, as another front emerges off the Texas coast late Sat night/early Sunday morning. This second weak front will reach from the mouth of the Mississippi River to near Veracruz Mexico by late Sun, and from the Florida Panhandle to the northeast Yucatan peninsula by late Mon, followed by moderate northerly winds.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
A trough moving across Puerto Rico into Hispaniola has largely dissipated, although an upper trough over the Windward Passage is supporting isolated showers from central Hispaniola to south of Puerto Rico. Elsewhere, fresh to strong NE to E winds persist off the coastlines of northwest Venezuela to Colombia with 8 to 10 ft seas. Otherwise, moderate winds and seas, with fairly dry conditions persist across the basin.

For the forecast, building high pressure north of the area will allow fresh to locally strong trades along the north coast of South America to expand northward over the south central Caribbean into the southwest Caribbean through Fri, then diminish somewhat late this weekend into early next week. Northeast swell will increase east of the Leewards on tonight and Fri, then decay from west to east through Sun.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
A dissipating stationary front reaches from 31N61W to 25N71W, bisecting the subtropical ridge along 27N. Moderate to fresh southerly flow is noted off the northeast coast of Florida, between the ridge and lower pressure over the southeast U.S. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft in open waters. No shower or thunderstorms are noted.

Remnants of the stationary front will drift west and become diffuse late today, as a cold front moves off the northeast Florida coast. The front will reach from Bermuda to south Florida by late Fri, then stall from 26N65W to the Straits of Florida late Sat. Remnants of the front will lift north on Sunday ahead on another cold front moving east across the southeast United States and entering the northwest waters late Tue.

Farther east, 1032 mb high pressure centered near 35N40W is remaining stationary, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds over the deep tropics. Large long period northerly swell persists, with recent altimeter satellite passes showing 12 to 14 ft seas covering the region north of 20N east of 50W, and 8 to 12 ft seas north of 12N and east of 55W.

Forecaster: Eric Christensen, National Hurricane Center


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