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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 636 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough extends from 06N12W to 02N18W where the ITCZ begins and continues west to 02N28W to 01S41W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along both boundaries between 10W-35W. ...
Gulf Of Mexico
A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1031 mb high centered over the northwest Atlantic. With this, a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the whole Gulf. This overall synoptic pattern is expected to persist through Tuesday night as the ridge remains in place. A broad upper-level ridge continues to reside over the basin. This ridge will be strong enough to hold an upper-level trough currently approaching from the west over northern Mexico. The next front to approach the area will reach the coast of Texas on Tuesday evening, but it is then expected to stall beneath deep layer SW flow. ...
Caribbean Sea
The broad surface high that prevails across the west Atlantic also extends south reaching the Caribbean waters. Scatterometer data depicts fresh trades across the basin, with strong winds remaining just north of Colombia between 73W-77W. Satellite imagery shows isolated trade wind showers moving over Puerto Rico and advecting west across the basin. In the upper levels, a weak upper-level trough crosses the Caribbean from Hispaniola to Northern Colombia. Strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean suppressing deep convection. Expect similar weather conditions through Tuesday night when a low pressure will move eastward from the United States east coast weakening the ridge in the west Atlantic and allowing winds to subside slightly in the Caribbean.
Fresh northeast winds prevail over the island and adjacent coastal waters. Winds will subside slightly on Wednesday as the ridge to the north weakens. Expect isolated showers to continue through Wednesday while the northeast flow persists. ...
Atlantic Ocean
A broad surface high centered near 38N75W extends across the west Atlantic. A weakening in this feature was analyzed as a dissipating cold front that extends from 31N79W to 28N70W then a cold front continues from that point to 28N58W to 31N50W. Isolated showers are observed along the cold front. Another dissipating frontal boundary extends across the eastern Atlantic analyzed as a stationary front from 31N29W to 22N34W. To the south, a surface trough is generating scattered showers across Suriname and adjacent waters mainly south of 10N between 50W-57W. Expect for the weak frontal boundaries to dissipate within the next 24 hours. The cold front in the central Atlantic will continue moving east with isolated showers. Little change is expected elsewhere. ERA