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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM EDT Thursday September 20 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite imagery shows that showers and thunderstorms associated with a westward-moving tropical wave located about 750 miles east of the Windward Islands have become less organized over the last several hours. There is no evidence of a surface circulation at this time, and a combination of dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to make development of this system unlikely while it moves westward at 10-15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A non-tropical area of low pressure with gale-force winds is located about 150 miles north of Bermuda and is moving south-southeastward at about 15 mph. Although there are some signs of organization, dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to limit development of this system over the next couple of days. However, conditions could become a bit more conducive for this low to gradually acquire some tropical characteristics early next week as the low moves south and then drifts westward to the southwest of Bermuda.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Another non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop by Friday night over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Azores. Conditions are expected to be conducive for the low to acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone could form late this weekend or early next week while the low meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa by Saturday. Some slow development of this system is possible early next week as it moves quickly westward across the low latitudes of the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Orrison/Blake

For the 5 Day graphical forecast plus detailed analysis see The Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion.


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