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After storm no-name, Hurricane Lilies bloom in the blue bottle gardens.

9:28a You might get a letter from PCFLO this week. They need a little help.

Here’s what’s up:

PCFLO is a real local organization, helping local folks.

In 2021 they got a new home base – this story tells more.

8:42a There are now three disturbances on the Atlantic. There are the remains of storm Gordon, no probable threat there. There is a low pressure system in the south Caribbean near the Gulf – it might become a Gulf tropical depression.

This morning there is something new, mid-Atlantic:

Here is the description:

• Hurricane Center

6:25a Cherry Branch will be operating on a reduced schedule today – there will be NO ferries operating between the hours of 8:00a – 1:30p. This reduced schedule is today only.

6:11p The tropical weather that moved through our area likely had an impact on fishing. We talked with Keith Bruno:

For fresh fish, stop by Endurance Seafood and say hi to Keith & Zach. There’s shrimp for dinner, and for recreational fishermen seeking bait… they expect to have fresh mullet available. 252-249-2558.

11:14a There was one meandering tropical system left on the distant Atlantic – Tropical Depression Gordon. Now that’s done.

The headline from the National Hurricane Center:

Degenerates. That’s gotta hurt.

We are at peak hurricane season, and the Atlantic is again empty of tropical systems.

• Hurricane Center

7:37 Look up. Some blue sky, poking through the clouds.

Winds should turn south by mid morning/noon-ish, and water levels will really come down.

6:48a Pamlico County Schools and Pamlico Community College are on a two hour delay this morning, due to weather.

The Cherry Branch / Minnesott Beach ferry is now back on normal schedule for the day.

What’s with the weather? It’s not windy, but there is rain. Since midnight, 8/10th of an inch has fallen (1.7 inches rained down Monday).

• Oriental NC Forecast
• Oriental Weather Station

It is wet out there – here is a weather radar run from 6:48a:

• Click here for live weather radar

Water levels still up, 2 ft above normal. They reached 2.6 ft high early Monday evening.

• Neuse River at Oriental Water Level Gauge

5:05p New high wind for the day: 42mph at 4:28p. And waters have snuck back up a bit. Now at 2.5 ft.

There will still be some wind & rain tonight, but that said, it’s au revoir for storm no-name. From the National Hurricane Center’s 5p update:

4:01p In the past couple hours, water levels are down a couple inches. No guarantees, but we may be near the peak from storm no-name.

They are now about 2.3 ft.

• Oriental NC Water Level Gauge

Highest wind today still 32 mph, recorded at 12:17p and again at 3:53p. There has been one inch of rain.

• Oriental NC Forecast
• Oriental Weather Station

2:12p This morning NHC had Potential Storm Eight at an 80% chance of forming. As of the 2p update, it is now 10%.

That’s a not too subtle way of saying, ain’t gonna happen.

Water levels are now at 2.42 ft above normal. Almost an inch of rain since midnight.

Storm no-name might not merit a t-shirt.

12:35p. It’s getting windy, and wet. High wind so far today, 32 mph at 12:17p.

Just over a half inch has come down since midnight. That will increase: at the moment, rain coming down hard.

• Oriental NC Forecast
• Oriental Weather Station
• Weather Radar
• Neuse River Marine Forecast

Water levels now at 2.33 ft above normal. The NOAA surge forecast is up to 3 ft. Based on where we are at now, it might sneak a bit higher than that.

• Oriental NC Water Level Gauge

10:11a The no-name storm is having some impact. From PCC:

9:02a Potential Numero Eight, could become Tropical Storm Helene. Or maybe not.

The latest from the National Hurricane Center:

Given the systems brief tenure, it won’t much matter here what it gets called. We’ll get some wind (gusts to 35) & some rain (3-4 inches).

• Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Tracking Chart
• Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Forecaster’s Discussion
• Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Public Advisory
• Hurricane Center

8:47a High winds & waters have shut down the ferry. From Cherry Branch:

The Pamlico County Board meets tonight, 7p.

6:45a A stormy~esque Monday is ahead. Windy, rainy. NOAA has reduced their rain prediction to 3-4 inches, still gusts in the 30s expected.

Water levels now 2.1 ft above normal.

It all happens today (gone Tuesday), from a storm system off the coast.

Scroll down and learn more.

5:14p That low off our coast is now Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight.

This may become Tropical Storm Helene on Monday. While the storm will make landfall at the South Carolina coast, we’ll get some weather too. Locally, the significant impact will be rain, 4 to 6 3 to 4 inches. Monday and Monday night, gusts to 35 mph.

• Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Tracking Chart
• Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Forecaster’s Discussion
• Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Public Advisory
• Hurricane Center

NOAA is calling for 1-3 feet of surge. We’re at 2 feet already – this is from brisk northeast winds on the Neuse and Pamlico Sound.

The Neuse marine forecast calls for 20-25 knots northeast tonight and Monday, 20-25 east Monday night. That will push up water levels further. Winds become southerly Tuesday – those water levels will go back down.

• Neuse River Marine Forecast
• Pamlico Sound Marine Forecast
• Neuse River at Oriental Water Level Gauge
• Weather Radar

8:00a The low pressure system off the SC/NC coast is now Invest 95 (an Invest is an area of disturbed weather being monitored for potential tropical system development).

There are now computer models. This isn’t an official NOAA/NHC track, but there is insight to be had. The black line is the mean of many models. Note ALL the models take the system south & west of us.

We’ll still get rained on – scroll down to see the forecast graphic below.

More info in the Hurricane Center.

7:12a Better go outside and look quick – the sun has appeared. It’s not totally cloudy.

Partly sunny this morning, but not for long. Clouds return for the afternoon.

Today might just provide enough pause in the wet to mow your lawn.

6:52p A low pressure system off the NC/SC coast has a 40% chance of becoming a storm system in the next 48 hours, 50% in the next week.

If it does develop, it’s not expected to impact us as a really powerful storm. Initially a tropical depression, it might reach tropical storm strength.

Whether or not it does become a storm system, it still will be dumping some rain our way. NOAA’s rainfall prediction is 4-6 inches between now and Tuesday night:

• Hurricane Center

3:30p The music (Mad Fiddler) scheduled for the brewery tonight, rained out. You can always drown your sorrows with an adult beverage.

Hi wind (so far) today, 27mph at 3:19p. Friday’s high wind was 25mph, at 1:13p. All the geeky info is at the Oriental Weather Station.

7:47a Oriental’s taco truck (“Casa Que Pasa”) on Hodges Street is open today – this is their third weekend. Casa Que Pasa is open Friday – Sunday, 8a – 2p.

Breakfast & lunch tacos: click here for the menu.

Cloudy & upper 70s / about 80 today and Sunday. Windy & choppy on the Neuse.

• Oriental NC Forecast
• Oriental Weather Station
• Weather Radar
• Neuse River Marine Forecast

Northeast winds are pushing up water levels.

3:17p TownDock’s Oriental Weather Station reports 1.9 inches of rain so far today. The state water level gauge at the Lou Mac Pier also has a rain gauge… it says 2.0 inches.

• Oriental Weather Station

Up on Tar Creek (near River Dunes), a reader reports 4 inches of rain. Another says 3.6.

It’s not unusual for different rain levels to be recorded around the county, although the 4 inch level is coming from a household known for having a particularly well stocked bar.

TownDock has an exclusive AI generated drone photo of the Tar Creek area this afternoon:

2:45p Ferry service has resumed at Cherry Branch / Minnesott Beach.

2:10p The Greens Creek Challenge Regatta is Saturday. It’s gonna be windy, northeast 15-20 on the Neuse, gusts to 30. A Small Craft Advisory.

That all said, the regatta is on the creeks, which gets some protection from northeast winds. It will be less windy than out on the Neuse, but it still will be windy. Perhaps like it was last year, a capsize or two. See the pics:

• Greens Creek Challenge 2023

Despite the breeze, folks still had a good time in 2023.

The 2024 race is still on, and organizer Jim Edwards say registration is 8:15a – 8:45a at Bow To Stern. You can use your own boat, or rent one from Bow To Stern. More info here.

Jim adds that due to the expected windy conditions, this probably isn’t the right regatta for a beginner.

2:00p High winds have stopped ferry service. From Cherry Branch:

Today’s high wind (so far) at the Oriental Weather Station, 25 mph. The Neuse forecast, east winds 15 to 20 knots, gusts to 25 knots.

1:42p So far for today, 1 3/4” inches of rain. It keeps on falling. The afternoon weather summary:

If you need a bit more detail:

• Oriental NC Forecast
• Oriental Weather Station
• Weather Radar
• Neuse River Marine Forecast
• Pamlico Sound Marine Forecast
• Neuse River at Oriental Water Level Gauge

11:03a Tropical Depression Seven is now Tropical Storm Gordon. Gordon is forecast to begin heading north mid next week, and winds are not expected to exceed 40 mph.

NHC has noted that Gordon will “struggle” to gain strength. For now, this does not appear to be a future concern.

• Tropical Storm Gordon Tracking Chart
• Tropical Storm Gordon Forecaster’s Discussion
• Tropical Storm Gordon Public Advisory
• Hurricane Center

Since midnight, we’ve received 1 1/4 inches of rain. More wet today, and in the coming week a 30 to 50% chance of rain is with us every day.

This is coming from a low pressure system off our coast. NOAA Newport NC says we may have a wet week ahead, with 4-6 inches forecast for our locale:

5:05p Former Hurricane Francine is now inland & post-tropical.

Tropical Depression Seven was expected to be Tropical Storm Gordon by now. Not yet. The NOAA/NHC forecast still indicates it will happen in the next day.

• Hurricane Center

11:29a The first day of autumn is Sept 22. As well as cooler temps, autumn ushers in a time of more events in Oriental.

Coming up:

• Harborfest for Heartworks, Sep 28
• Ol’ Front Porch Music Festival, Oct 4-5
• Oriental Car Show, Oct 12
• Oriental Cup Regatta, Oct 11-13
• Chili Cookoff, Oct 26

It may not be autumn yet, but the sunrises & sunsets appear to think it is.

This morning, @ 6:46a:

(Jennifer Smart photo)

9:30a Wednesday evening, the two boats that have occupied the town dock for a week were towed away. Take a look.

9:22a Francine is now inland, weakened to a tropical depression, raining on Louisiana & Mississippi.

Tropical Depression Seven hasn’t yet strengthened to a tropical storm, but is expected to today. Once it becomes Tropical Storm Gordon, then what?

NOAA’s predictions out to 5 days have it staying at tropical storm strength, max winds 50 mph.

The unofficial long term models are not definitive, but do hint it may trend north (which would keep it away from the US east coast):

• Tropical Depression Seven Tracking Chart
• Tropical Depression Seven Forecaster’s Discussion
• Tropical Depression Seven Public Advisory
• Hurricane Center

11:22a Here we go. Invest 93 is now a formed storm system – Tropical Depression Seven.

Seven is expected to get named & upgraded to Tropical Storm Gordon later today or tomorrow.

• Tropical Depression Seven Tracking Chart
• Tropical Depression Seven Forecaster’s Discussion
• Tropical Depression Seven Public Advisory
• Hurricane Center

9:07a Hurricane Francine is headed to the Louisiana coast, plus there are four disturbances on the Atlantic. Of the four, Invest 93 bears watching. Now an 80% chance of forming in the next week, it is likely to become the future Storm Gordon.

Here is NOAA’s Atlantic Outlook image, with Invest 93 computer models overlaid:

If we’re fortunate, this gets pushed north and stays away, but it’s an initial path that could lead to the US east coast.

More about all the Atlantic disturbances in the Hurricane Center.

6:10p A week ago, two sailboats tied up at the town dock, rafted. It is a dock marked as max two hours for the month of September. They have been there for a week. Nobody is onboard. They do not appear to be particularly seaworthy.

Are they abandoned? TownDock talked with Oriental Police Officer Bill Wichrowski:

While the hailing port of the larger vessel, SV Acceptance, is the “United Kingdom”, it may have been some time since that was the actual hailing port. The boat has NC registration numbers, it’s owner hailing from near Aurora, NC.

Meanwhile… on the Atlantic, Invest 92 is about kaput, but Invest 93 has just come off the coast of Africa. There are no real models yet, beyond the red area provide by NOAA/NHC here:

• Hurricane Center

11:28a Here’s a look at the Cherry Branch Ferry / US Coast Guard exercise going on today:

(David White photo)

10:50a It’s a one boat ferry schedule today at Cherry Branch. They are doing a “response exercise” with the Coast Guard:

Due to a USCG response exercise, Cherry Branch operation will be on a 1 boat schedule between the hours of 9am-3pm today 9/10/24.
Cherry Branch: 9a, 10, 11, 12,130pm, 230, 3….
Minnesott Beach: 930a, 1030, 1130, 1230, 2, 3…

Normal ferry schedule resumes at 3p.

9:04a The calendar says it is still summer, but it is feeling like fall.

Overnight, temps dipped down to 56. Sunny and near 80 today, back down near 60 tonight.

• Oriental NC Forecast
• Oriental Weather Station
• Neuse River Marine Forecast

Wednesday marks the anniversary of Sept 11, 2001. Southeast Pamlico Volunteer Fire Department invites the community to participate in a National Moment of Silence Wednesday, Sept. 11, observed in Oriental at Hodges Street, near the town dock.

Fire Station 19 will have their fire trucks, draped in mourning bunting. Officers will observe the national moment of silence at 8:46a. Taps will play after.

A ceremonial flag that flew over the crash site of Flight 93 (and was gifted to SPVFD) will be flown at half-mast at the town dock for the day. Hodges Street will be briefly closed to traffic for the ceremony.

Here’s the story from Fire Station 19’s 2021 honoring of 9/11.

8:10a The tropical Atlantic is looking a bit more normal for early/mid September.

In the Gulf, Tropical Storm Francine is expected to become a hurricane today, making landfall at the Louisiana coast Wednesday.

Out mid Atlantic, Invest 92 appears less likely that it will form a storm, but a disturbance right behind it now has a 70% chance of tropical system formation. From the NHC:

• Hurricane Center

12:27a It took a while, but Duke Power has it fixed. The juice is back.

7:33p Power went out in Oriental just after 5p. Duke first said it would be back at 6:30p. The estimate now is 11:30p (the second guess is probably right).

Meanwhile, it’s Sunday night with the generator, or candles. The autumn-like weather makes the outage not so bad.

8:25a After nothing on the Atlantic for many weeks, this morning there is some activity.

Invest 91 is in the Gulf (not the Atlantic). It is likely to become a tropical depression, with potential impacts on the coasts of Texas and Louisiana.

Far out on the Atlantic is Invest 92. Ninety-two is a thunderstormy low pressure system, that could become a tropical depression in the coming week. It’s in an area where significant storms can form, storms that can track towards the US east coast.

With a 60% chance of storm formation in the next week, we’ll be keeping a focused eye on Invest 92.

• Hurricane Center

Upcoming names for the 2024 season: Francine, Gordon, Helene, Issac, Joyce and Kirk.

8:38a Today, it rains. Since midnight, just over a half inch of rain.

Starting Sunday, clear dry days are forecast for at least the next week.

On the Neuse, northeast winds 5-10 today, becoming 10-15 Sunday & Monday.

• Oriental NC Forecast
• Oriental Weather Station
• Neuse River Marine Forecast
• Weather Radar

Casa Que Pasa (aka the Taco truck) on Hodges St is open today. New hours: 8a-2p, Fri – Sat – Sun.

3:01p Participating in the MS Ride Saturday is Oriental’s Julia Tingle. You can donate to show your support (the money all goes to fight MS).

Julia’s MS Ride page is at this link.

It sometimes seems like Julia rides her bicycle more than anybody in town. A few years ago, TownDock talked to Julia about her bicycling.

2:35p It’s the weekend after a holiday weekend. Kinda slow. Larger events are usually scheduled to avoid early and mid September – the threat of hurricane visits is historically too great. This year (so far) may be a tropical storm sleeper, but one might best not plan on that.

Tonight at The Silos/Red Rooster, Mike Bramble plays starting at 7. Tanja’s Hella Fat food truck is at the brewery, 4:30p on.

You’ll see a lot of bicyclists in the county Saturday. They are part of the annual MS Ride out of New Bern, raising money to support the National MS Society.

Oriental’s Farmer’s Market sets up Saturday morning on Hodges St near the harbor. Saturday morning in Bayboro you can get your pet vaccinated for rabies, just ten bucks, 8a-11a behind the Pamlico County Courthouse.

Seacoast Marine Electronics is having an Open House Saturday, 9a-5p. If you haven’t been by, Seacoast has a large showroom showcasing marine electronics. You can look and touch (and learn). Saturday a rep from Raymarine is there all day, answering questions.

Also Saturday, La Cocina del Coqui food truck pulls into New Village Brewery at 3p, Jim Bennett plays in the beer garden starting at 6.

It’s all in What’s Happening.

There’s always an opportunity to do nothin’ too. It’s under-rated.

8:14a Yesterday there were five disturbances on the Atlantic & Gulf. One had a probable path our way. This morning, that disturbance is no longer on the map.

The collective will of TownDock readers smushed a potential storm system. Take a bow.

• Hurricane Center

The calendar still says it is summer, but early autumn seems to be with us.

The first official day of fall is September 22.

• Oriental NC Forecast
• Oriental Weather Station
• Neuse River Marine Forecast

3:58p There is now Invest 99 (a potential storm) on the Atlantic. Invest 99 is about between The Bean and Bermuda, heading northeast. Ain’t coming here.

This probably won’t develop into a tropical storm system, but will rain on Nova Scotia.

• Hurricane Center

9:05a Heartworks makes good things happen, in part through a helping hand from volunteers.

You can find out more about volunteering at Heartworks today at 1p.

8:38a Bunky, look at this. There are now five disturbances on the Atlantic.

None likely to form into anything stormy soon, but being that insecurity & paranoia are natural human conditions, maybe we should keep an eye on one.

The word on the paranoia one:

• Hurricane Center

2:39p Four disturbances on the Atlantic. Not one looks like imminent trouble.

• Hurricane Center

Long time readers of TownDock may be familiar with Senior Management’s disdain for hurricane season forecasts. Here is word-for-word what we published two years ago:

And here we are. Hurricane season forecasts being re-issued this week, folding earlier predictions into reality. Accuweather now says “two to four more direct impacts to the United States this season.” See, if there is one, or five, they are only off by one.

Forecasting an entire season has a fine history – as entertainment.

Leave it to the masters…

4:25p Town meeting 6p tonight at Town Hall. Here is the agenda.

4:12p A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Thursday morning. Brisk northeast winds are pushing water levels up:

• Neuse River Marine Forecast

• Oriental NC Forecast
• Oriental Weather Station

3:04p How quiet is the Atlantic? This is the first time in over 50 years that there hasn’t been a new named storm since mid-August.

Today, there are three tropical waves being followed. Two of these were at a 40% chance of development earlier today. Now, 30%.

Looking forward, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center isn’t forecasting much of an uptick:

• Hurricane Center