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It’s now Tropical Depression Grace – on Saturday it is expected to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Grace. This one is potential trouble… a small movement north could have the track heading our way.

7:57p The storm system is now Tropical Depression Seven (expected to be Tropical Storm Grace Saturday):

• Tropical Depression Seven Tracking Chart
• Tropical Depression Seven Forecasters Discussion
• Tropical Depression Seven Public Advisory
• Hurricane Center

12:40p What’s in store for Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven? The initial forecast indicates it will be Storm Grace this weekend, probably Saturday. The wind forecast is modest, with the storm not forecast to exceed 50 mph winds in the next 5 days.

1:57p Pamlico County is seeing an uptick in COVID-19 cases, 32 in the last 7 days.

This increase is appearing to inspire re-interest in getting vaccinated. In the last 7 days, 52 have got the 1st shot, 28 their second shot. Pamlico County now has a 51% rate with the 1st shot, 48% the second.

Complete county & state data at this link.

9:50a While we are enjoying a dry week, rain is likely returning next week. The forecast for next week has days with a 50% ~ish chance of rain, but pleasantly cooling to highs just near 80.

9:44a Storm Fred has been downgraded to a tropical depression, being weakened by passing over the land mass of Caribbean islands (the storm is now approaching Cuba). It is expected to re-strengthen to a tropical storm as it enters the Gulf Saturday. Fred is not forecast to reach hurricane strength.

• Tropical Depression Fred Tracking Chart
• Tropical Depression Fred Forecasters Discussion
• Tropical Depression Fred Public Advisory

The system to keep an eye on is Invest 95. It is on a path that can send a storm our way (or to to the Gulf). The next storm name on tap is Grace.

8:46a Locally, we have feared “i” storm names the most in the last couple decades. Hurricanes Isabel (2003) and Irene (2011) made that happen. Perhaps “f” names need to be added to the fear list (from Florence in 2018).

This year, it looks like the “f” name isn’t going to be a local problem. Tropical Storm Fred is headed to the Gulf.

NOAA even provides pronunciation guidance, in case Fred baffles you. It’s “frehd”.

Upcoming 2021 storm names, plus their verbal assistance: Grace (grayss), Henri (ahn-REE), Ida (EYE-duh), Julian (JOO-lee-uhn), Kate (kayt), Larry (LAIR-ree), Mindy (MIN-dee), Nicholas (NIH-kuh-luss), Odette (oh-DEHT), Peter (PEE-tur), Rose (rohz), Sam (sam) and Teresa (tuh-REE-suh).

Try practicing. A dog is useful as an interested listener.

About Fred: Fred will bring tropical storm conditions to the southern Caribbean on his way to the Florida Keys and into the Gulf. Fred is forecast to reach near (but not quite) hurricane strength before landfall at the Florida Panhandle, with winds growing to 65 mph by then.

• Tropical Storm Fred Tracking Chart
• Tropical Storm Fred Forecasters Discussion
• Tropical Storm Fred Public Advisory

11:00p It is now Tropical Storm Fred.

12:47p The hurricane center folks are saying it will likely be a tropical storm later today / tonight. Why isn’t that potential storm called Storm Fred yet?

Hurricane Hunter aircraft have visited – and didn’t find a true closed center… yet. So it’s not Fred. Yet.

There are tropical storm warnings for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. 15 ft seas.

Meanwhile, locally, seas are 14 to 15 ft smaller than that. 5 – 10 knots on the Neuse.

10:50a No rain in the forecast until at least Sunday. A tropical storm is brewing (gonna be Fred), but that is forecast to stay away from our shores.

Life is fine.

• Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Tracking Chart
• Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecasters Discussion
• Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Public Advisory

• Oriental NC Forecast
• Neuse River Marine Forecast
• Pamlico Sound Marine Forecast
• TownDock Weather Radar

5:10p The initial track for Potential Storm Six (future Fred) – has the system tracking to the Gulf:

While the computer models vary, none have the future storm heading to our shores. The forecasters discussion shows the system reaching tropical storm strength – but not hurricane strength.

4:20p Invest 94 (now just east of Barbados) gets promoted to Potential Tropical Cyclone Six by 5p today. TownDock will have the official NHC track, plus alternative computer models.

Potential Storm Six will likely be declared a tropical depression tonight or Tuesday. The next storm names in line: Fred, Grace and Henri.

3:04p Tomorrow, the Pamlico County Library hosts Daniel Simpson from the NC State Extension. From 2-3p, Daniel answers your questions about preparing and planning your garden for fall, cold weather crops, and growing plants and produce in Pamlico County.

The talk is free, but you’ll need to call the Library to register, 252-745-3515. Find out more about Daniel’s program, and upcoming classes, here.

2:01p The world loves a good fishing story. This one goes back 70 years. This is from the Key West Citizen – the story is from August 9, 1950:

It’s unclear whether the Key West habit of consuming alcohol for breakfast may have contributed to this report.

Mullet jumping at the surface

11:32a The ferry is back in operation and “will resume normal schedule beginning at 12 noon today.”

Don’t have the normal schedule? It’s on TownDock on the right hand side of the front page under “Inside TownDock”. Or, you can click here.

11:11a There’s no 11:30a departure from Minnesott Beach Ferry:

Due to continued issues on M/V Roanoke there will be no 1130am departure out of Minnesott.

Will continue to update.

8:44a There is potential trouble on the Atlantic. Invest 94 is east of Barbados this morning, bound for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. It has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical storm system in the next 2 days.

Current models keep the potential storm south and west enough to avoid us, but just a small change in that route could have a different outcome. More details in the Hurricane Center.

The next storm name on deck is Fred.

6:41a It was a busy(ish) weekend in Oriental. If you missed the annual Watermelon Cutting, you can check out the photos from the event here.

Bow to Stern held a two-day Regatta for small boats and keel boats on Saturday and Sunday. Though rain delayed the start of the race Saturday, competitors were on the water and ready to go. Race results and story coming.

Warm today – near 90. No rain in the forecast today. Light and variable winds becoming SE around 10 mph later.

7:32a A fog bank has descended on the harbor:

5:12p Another Invest is on the Atlantic. What’s an Invest? Invest is short for Investigation – it is a designated area of disturbed weather in the tropics being investigated & followed by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Invest 93’s initial models have it potentially bound for the southern Caribbean. No local concern now, but this is where future storms brew.

Invest 92 looks now less of a probable future storm. More information in the Hurricane Center.

1:37p That heron on today’s cover was showin’ off a bit. Check him out:

10:39a Clouds are not stopping the Bow To Stern Regatta. Boats are heading out now, 19 vessels participating, with 35 sailors. You’ll be able to see the races from Lou Mac Park… it all starts about 11:15a.

9:17a Today is forecast to be the last day of the recent monsoon… with an 80% chance of rain. Starting Sunday, life looks drier.

Today you can learn Acrylic Pouring at Artworks. August guest artists Janet & David Jaworski have an reception today from 2 – 5p at Village Gallery.

Photographer David Jaworski sent along a view from this week – raindrops:

More about the Jaworski’s exhibit at this link.

While sailors may get wet, today’s 5-10 knots on the Neuse should be friendly for this weekend’s Bow To Stern Regatta.

Come Sunday, an Oriental tradition. You are invited to Watermelon At The Bonds.

It’s all in What’s Happening.

5:12p No tunes. But there is beer. From Lili @ the brewery:

The brews & eats described here.

3:02p A check of weather radar shows rain on the way.

1:46p COVID-19 cases are again increasing in Pamlico County, with 22 new cases in the last 7 days. Here are the latest numbers.

12:30p Donald Smithwick, longtime employee of Powercraft Marine, has passed away. He had been hospitalized with COVID in New Bern. He was 60. Our sympathies go out to Powercraft Marine and the Smithwick family.

8:20a You might feel a bit blessed – it hasn’t rained since midnight. It didn’t really rain yesterday (1/100th of an inch was recorded).

It’s about time… so far in August we have had 8 3/4” inches of rain. That’s about like a hurricane visit’s worth of rain.

A sun & clouds mix today, with a 60% chance of afternoon showers. Saturday looks wet (80%), but then starting Sunday a mostly dry week is forecast. Town needs to evaporate, especially with the busiest time of hurricane season not many weeks away.

• Oriental NC Forecast
• Neuse River Marine Forecast
• Pamlico Sound Marine Forecast
• TownDock Weather Radar

Invest 92, the potential tropical storm system off the Atlantic, has a 60% chance of forming. NHC says:

“…a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic.”

More info here.

5:17p Discussion about signs for public spaces once again dominated the town hall meeting. But there was also talk about upcoming events, and the approval of a new short term rental. Read August’s Town Board Report here.

3:14p Captain Bob & Friends play at 6p tonight at New Village Brewery. And there’s something new on tap today, and it isn’t beer. It’s hard seltzer, 4%. It’s called Sippin’ On Ginger Juice – hard ginger seltzer.

1:45p It seemed it wasn’t possible… blue skies have appeared among the clouds.

An all dry forecast returns next week starting Monday.

11:30a There are two “disturbances” on the Atlantic. The farthest one appears to have more chance of becoming trouble. Invest 92 is at the African coast, but already has a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm system in the next 5 days.

It is early to have much insight on where Invest 92 may be headed, but here are the initial models:

More info in the Hurricane Center.

The 2021 storm names used so far: Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny and Elsa. Next name on deck is Fred – then Grace, Henri, Ida, Julian and Kate.

9:15a After the last two days, we have a fair shot at a dry day – today’s chance of rain is only 20%. Though the chance of rain is low, the clouds are still with us. The sun may appear this afternoon. High’s near 80.

Winds are out of the N at 10 mph. On the Neuse, they’re N at 5-10 kts becoming E later today.

The crew of Impulse II at the 2018 Bow to Stern Regatta.

This weekend is the Bow to Stern Regatta – a two day race for small boats and keel boats. NOR and registration for the regatta are here.

2:41p At the Village Gallery, a different artist displays their work every month. In August, two artists share the spotlight.

Meet painter Janet Jaworski and her husband, photographer Dr. David Jaworski.

11:39a Heartworks holds an Information & Orientation session for new volunteers today at 2p.

No weekly time commitment needed (if you’re planning a big trip, you can still help out) and volunteers choose the activities.

The rain has brought with it some cooler temperatures: high near 80 today. As for that rain, 3.56 inches fell yesterday. Today it’s 1.74 – so far.

There’s more rain forecast in the coming days, but with a lower chance of happening: 40% Thursday and Friday.

SW winds at 15 – 20 mph with gusts up to 35, becoming W at 10 this afternoon.

• Oriental NC Forecast
• Neuse River Marine Forecast
• Pamlico Sound Marine Forecast
• TownDock Weather Radar
• TownDock streams NOAA Weather Radio Online

8:45p At tonight’s meeting, Commissioner Sandy Winfrey asked for a time change for town meetings (it was approved), two residents again spoke out against signs (indicating a public space) for streets ending at the Neuse River, and after approving a new short term rental on Camp Creek Road, Commissioners set an upcoming public hearing (for the September meeting) for a new short term rental on Main St.

Report on tonight’s meeting coming.

4:46p This evening is Oriental’s monthly meeting of the Town Board, 7p at Town Hall. The public is invited.

There are two public hearings tonight – one for a short term rental on Camp Creek Rd (the only residence on that road) and one for an addition to the Growth Management Ordinance – a ‘single user Wind Energy Ordinance’.

See the full agenda for tonight’s meeting here.

7:28a Welcome to rain forest, day 7. Since midnight, 1.13 inches. Yesterday about an inch and a half. Today is just the 3rd, and we’ve had over 4 1/2 inches just this month. More comin’. About another week of it ahead.

Why all the rain? We’re being punished. It may be that someone has been bad. Word is that it’s you.

Your behavior has caused the following:

A frontal boundary will more or less remain stalled over the area through the rest of the week as several waves of low pressure develop along it. With deep moisture in place, rain today will exceed 2”, heavy rainfall with a flash flood threat is expected this afternoon. Latest guidance places the corridor of heaviest rainfall south and west of the Highway 17, including the Crystal Coast and Outer Banks. Precipitation will be scattered this morning before becoming widespread this afternoon. High temps will be muzzled by cloud coverage and rain – cooled air today, reaching only the mid to upper 70s.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect beginning at 8a this morning thru Thursday.

• Oriental NC Forecast
• Neuse River Marine Forecast
• Pamlico Sound Marine Forecast
• TownDock Weather Radar
• Neuse River at Oriental Water Level Gauge
• TownDock streams NOAA Weather Radio Online