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While French jazz played Friday evening, there was dancing on the Labyrinth. Day two of the Ol’ Front Porch Music Festival continues today. The schedule is here.

1:52p That Gulf Tropical Depression is now Tropical Storm Milton.

Milton will be a hurricane by Monday morning, and is bound for Florida (not here).

• Tropical Storm Milton Tracking Chart
• Hurricane Center

There’s more Ol’ Front Porch. This afternoon’s schedule – and the festival map.

11:05a Tropical Depression Fourteen has formed in the Gulf, tracking to the west Florida coast. It is expected to reach hurricane strength.

• Tropical Depression Fourteen Tracking Chart
• Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecaster’s Discussion
• Hurricane Center

9:40a Friday evening, the French swing jazz of Djoukil played. Some danced, most everybody at least moved.

Ben Casey was on duty getting photographs.

In the midst of it all, Laura “Faster Than a Polaroid” Turgeon drew the scene:

Today is the big day for the festival. The schedule is online – here’s the link.

There’s even a printable schedule PDF.

The festival has perfect weather on tap… partly sunny & 80 today.

Hurricane season is technically with us until November 30. Usually, if anything is going to brew, it will be by mid October.

Invest 92 is now in the Gulf, and expected to become a storm system later today or Sunday. It would Florida bound:

The next storm name… Milton.

• Hurricane Center

11:41a You can see the Ol’ Front Porch Music Festival schedule online – here’s the link.

Some folks like a printed schedule – here’s a printable schedule PDF.

10:25a For some Pamlico County water system users – a low pressure & boil water advisory.

Details on the problem here.

6:53a Tropical Depression Thirteen is now Tropical Storm Leslie, 40 mph winds, and expected to reach hurricane strength in a few days.

Leslie’s track is still trending north~ish, but the models are beginning to disagree where her ultimate track will be. Best keep an eye on Leslie.

• Tropical Storm Leslie Tracking Chart
• Tropical Storm Leslie Forecaster’s Discussion
• Hurricane Center

4:02p There is a community disaster supply drive being coordinated by Oriental United Methodist Church, to aid those in western North Carolina. Basic household supplies are being requested, and will be collected at Station 19 from October 8 – 20 (tentative dates).

More info about what’s needed here.

Volunteers are needed to receive the donations at Station 19 – sign up at this link.

1:11p The Ol’ Front Porch Music Festival is this Friday & Saturday. It brings an extra couple thousand folks to town.

How do you get around? Is there a map? It’s all answered here.

12:14p High water levels, most noticeable on Hodges Street, just wont… go… away.

The view this afternoon:

Water levels now 2 1/4 ft above normal, and weather conditions are such that they won’t be returning to “normal” for a while. North and northeast winds push up water levels:

• Neuse River Marine Forecast
• Neuse River at Oriental Water Level Gauge
• Oriental NC Forecast

11:45a Tropical Depression Thirteen has formed, from Invest 91. While not identical, it is initially forecast to be on a similar northerly track as Kirk.

If this track continues, it would keep Thirteen away from our shores. This is expected to strengthen to a hurricane. The next names on tap are Leslie and Milton.

• Tropical Depression Thirteen Tracking Chart
• Hurricane Center

We now have Tropical Storm Kirk, formed near the Cape Verde Islands off Africa.

Kirk is expected to become a powerful hurricane, but is also forecast to trend north and stay mid Atlantic.

Elsewhere in Atlantic storm news, Isaac is kaput, and Joyce about to be done.

A disturbance is down in the same area Helene formed. The Gulf (and inland) is nervous.

• Tropical Storm Kirk Tracking Chart
• Hurricane Center

Coming this weekend to Ol’ Front Porch… a band that calls their music “swampgrass”.

It’s the Shoaldiggers:

5:35p Tropical Depression Twelve has formed in the distant Atlantic. While this may become a significant hurricane, initial tracks have it trending north and staying away from land.

• Tropical Depression 12 Tracking Chart
• Hurricane Center

When twelve gets stronger (likely Monday), it will get the name Kirk.

2:19p Ol’ Front Porch is now just days away. Among the 2024 performers… a group from France. Djoukil.

There might be just a bit different:

8:28a You might think Hurricane Helene left the most rain in Florida. Nope.

It was western North Carolina. One small town on the Blue Ridge Parkway, Busick, got 29 inches (update – now 30 inches). Mount Mitchell saw 24 inches.

(click pic for the big wet view)

4:55p Now centered over Kentucky, former hurricane Helene has been declared post-tropical. More in the Hurricane Center.

Back here in river city, winds are calmer, but more breeze and a chance of rain are in tonight’s forecast.

2:22p An impressive breeze just trucked through town. High wind so far today, 31mph at 2:16p.

2:14p Here’s what’s up. Tonight may be hypothetical/hopeful (weather), but no cancellations have dialed in yet.

Oriental’s History Museum takes a look at who was here before folks named Midyette & Delamar (well, there were the Smiths of Smith Creek, but that’s another story). A new museum exhibit debuts today, Native Americans of Pamlico County. The museum is open Friday 11-3 and Saturday 1-4.

Hoff n Finch at the brewery tonight, teamed w the La Cocina Del Coqui food truck. At the Red Rooster, Terra Tones play the bantam stage.

Saturday morning the Farmer’s Market near the harbor – the farmers will be happy to see the lower water levels. Jane Wright passed away in June. Friends will gather for a Celebration of Jane’s life Saturday 2p at the Tiki Bar.

Also Saturday afternoon get vino education at two wine tastings, 2 & 3p, Nautical Wheelers. Saturday night support Heartworks mission at Harborfest @ River Dunes. At New Village Brewery, Jasmine Tasty Thai food truck and Terra Tones play 6-8p.

Sunday afternoon Fay Bond celebrates another turn of the planet… she will be 101. Lou Mac park, 4-7p.

You’ll find it all in What’s Happening.

12:01p There’s a tornado watch in effect, plus a Small Craft Advisory… both in effect til 6p tonight.

• Neuse River at Oriental Water Level Gauge

After all the breezy action, Saturday’s easy forecast on the Neuse: 5 knots.

11:23a Tropical Storm Joyce has formed, out on the Atlantic. Joyce’s forecast track keeps it thousands of miles away.

To put this into perspective, Storm Joyce will track closer to Buckingham Palace than to Cape Hatteras.

To be fair to Buckingham Palace, we hear the afternoon tea at Hatteras leaves something to be desired.

There are now three active tropical storm systems, not unusual for this time in September. None pose a probable threat to front or back yards in Oriental NC.

• Hurricane Center

Those brisk winds today are influenced by the big wide winds of Helene. High wind so far today in Oriental, 27mph at 11:04a.

• Oriental Weather Station

7:12a It’s just a week away. Long term weather looks a like a fine weekend will likely be with us. It’s the Ol’ Front Porch Music Festival, Oct 4 & 5.

27 bands & performers. Among them, Nefesh Mountain:

6:51a Helene is now “just” a tropical storm, 70 mph winds and raining on Georgia. Isaac is a hurricane, on an eastern Atlantic route that will take the lad north of Ireland. Invest 98 just hasn’t formed a storm yet, but even if it does (and becomes Joyce), it is forecast to do a billiard ball move and stay far away.

Back here in river city, a cloudy thunderstormy day ahead. Highs about 80, a 90% chance of getting wet.

On the Neuse, southeast winds 10-15, gusts to 30. Those brisk southerly winds will finally move water levels down.

• Hurricane Center
• Oriental NC Forecast
• Oriental Weather Station
• Neuse River at Oriental Water Level Gauge
• Weather Radar
• Neuse River Marine Forecast

12:37p He’s traveled across Europe, then trekked to Napa Valley.

Super suave & debonair Doug Sligh leads the wine tastings this Saturday at Nautical Wheelers.

11:03a. Now 80 mph winds, Helene is a hurricane.

9:07a It’s Wednesday, the day that the Piglet debuts their weekly specials.

Here are the Piggly Wiggly deals for Sept 25 – Oct 1.

8:38a In the Gulf, Tropical Storm (about to be hurricane) Helene’s forecast track inland continues to be west enough that we are unlikely to see impact beyond rain.

New this morning are Invests 98 and 99. Invest 99 is north Atlantic, bound for Portugal. Weeding your yard is a bigger concern.

Invest 98 is in the distant Atlantic, on an initial path that might cause anxiety. While we’re waiting for prettier computer models to be available, here’s what the weather patterns suggest: when Invest 98 gets to about 45 degrees west, she be turning north.

• Hurricane Center

Update: those Invest 98 models are in:

11:21a It’s now Tropical Storm Helene, forecast to become Hurricane Helene Wednesday.

Still bound for the Florida Panhandle, expected to reach Category 3 strength before landfall Thursday evening.

• Tropical Storm Helene Tracking Chart
• Tropical Storm Helene Forecaster’s Discussion
• Tropical Storm Helene Public Advisory
• Hurricane Center

9:37a It’s all cloudy this morning. The forecast says that bright thing in the sky will appear.

Julie Wiegand with OWC writes in:

The lab coat adorned Oriental Einsteins:

9:22a Storm systems. Where are they going? Talk is in the air.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (aka it’s gotta get named Helene soon), has had a consistent forecast track from NOAA/NHC, but there is still some question of its ultimate path. This morning, some meteorologists are calling Nine “disorganized.” One school of thought has Nine weaker than now forecast, trending more west. Another where Nine promptly develops that core, gets stronger, with a path more east. Which is it?

Gotta trust the National Hurricane Center, NOAA/NHC. While their seasonal forecasts may be silly, the NHC individual storm forecast tracks are brilliant.

• Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Tracking Chart
• Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecaster’s Discussion
• Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory
• Hurricane Center

What about the disturbance off Africa? Perhaps a future storm Isaac, it will likely gain “Invest” status today or tomorrow, with storm models to follow.

Weather patterns suggest a probable northerly trend that could keep it away.

The upcoming storm names: Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie and… Milton.

Milton.

Milton just doesn’t sound stormy.

11:15a Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is now on the scene. Formerly Invest 97, soon to get the name Helene.

The first official NHC forecast has this one Gulf/Panhandle bound and staying well to our west.

• Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Tracking Chart
• Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecaster’s Discussion
• Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory
• Hurricane Center

10:21a Pierce Chapel A.M.E. Zion Church is in Oriental, on Town Rd (about across from the Piglet). They have been raising money to get off their antiquated septic setup, and hook to the County sewer system.

They need $8,000. They are almost there… just $1,000 to go. Maybe you help them reach that goal. It isn’t an online thing, Pierce Chapel accounting is old school.

Dust off your checkbook, find a stamp, and mail your tax-deductible contribution, payable to “Pierce Chapel A.M.E. Zion Church,” to P.O. Box 428, Oriental, NC 28571. (Overage donations, if any, will be added to the church’s General Building Repair Fund for future use.)

Questions? Contact Gregory “Zeke” Green, 252-838-2425.

9:47a Up for an evening sail? It’s Open Sailing, 5p today at Bow To Stern.

Looks like gentle sailing weather, 5-10 knots forecast for the Neuse today & tonight.

• Neuse River Marine Forecast

9:24a There are two likely storm systems to watch. Invest 97, bound for the Gulf, and a disturbance in the distant Atlantic.

Re Invest 97, the Panama City to Cedar Key corridor is currently most likely for landfall. Most models have it keeping way west of us.

Where is the disturbance way out on the Atlantic headed?

From the National Hurricane Center:

No real models yet. Here’s what we do have:

• Hurricane Center.

5:12p Invest 97 has been declared, a potential (likely) storm system in the Gulf.

The word from the National Hurricane Center:

The initial (unofficial) computer models forecast a Florida Panhandle landfall Thursday or Friday, and the storm system staying well west of our locale once inland:

The ultimate track could change. More in the Hurricane Center.

6:40a Light west winds today will push some water away. Those west winds should have water levels drop a bit in the village.

It’s a partly sunny/cloudy mix, highs near 80.

• Oriental NC Forecast

Saturday ODC was out racing the larger boats, the PHRF fleet. Today on the Neuse they race dinghies, boats smaller than 20’.

The forecast hints it will be a race of patience – west winds at 5 knots.

• Neuse River Marine Forecast

2:05p There’s live music in town tonight, Ken Belangia at the Red Rooster, Sticks and Strings at the brewery. It’s Trivia Night tonight at the Oriental Woman’s Club.

Saturday morning a full slate of “farmers” at the Farmer’s Market on Hodges near the harbor. ODC is sail racing Saturday & Sunday on the Neuse.

Saturday from 5:00-7:30p help support your local volunteer fire department: it’s a Station 19 fundraiser at Oriental Deli on Broad St. Saturday night Ken Belangia (that Ken gets around) and Kim Brookshire play in the brewery beer garden, with Southern Breeze Seafood food truck serving.

It’s all in What’s Happening.

9:07a There is a potential storm system on the Atlantic, Invest 96. Early indications from NOAA on this disturbance were that it was moving towards the west (generally towards us).

Now with computer models run this morning, it is headed north to bye-bye land. This is another tropical nothing~burger.

• Hurricane Center

It is taco truck time in the village. Casa Que Pasa on Hodges Street is open. Casa Que Pasa is open Friday – Sunday, 8a – 2p.

Breakfast & lunch tacos: click here for the menu.

After a few days of rain & clouds, you’re just gonna have to suffer some sun & more sun.

• Oriental NC Forecast
• Neuse River Marine Forecast

9:28a You might get a letter from PCFLO this week. They need a little help.

Here’s what’s up:

PCFLO is a real local organization, helping local folks.

In 2021 they got a new home base – this story tells more.

8:42a There are now three disturbances on the Atlantic. There are the remains of storm Gordon, no probable threat there. There is a low pressure system in the south Caribbean near the Gulf – it might become a Gulf tropical depression.

This morning there is something new, mid-Atlantic:

Here is the description:

• Hurricane Center

6:25a Cherry Branch will be operating on a reduced schedule today – there will be NO ferries operating between the hours of 8:00a – 1:30p. This reduced schedule is today only.

6:11p The tropical weather that moved through our area likely had an impact on fishing. We talked with Keith Bruno:

For fresh fish, stop by Endurance Seafood and say hi to Keith & Zach. There’s shrimp for dinner, and for recreational fishermen seeking bait… they expect to have fresh mullet available. 252-249-2558.

11:14a There was one meandering tropical system left on the distant Atlantic – Tropical Depression Gordon. Now that’s done.

The headline from the National Hurricane Center:

Degenerates. That’s gotta hurt.

We are at peak hurricane season, and the Atlantic is again empty of tropical systems.

• Hurricane Center

7:37 Look up. Some blue sky, poking through the clouds.

Winds should turn south by mid morning/noon-ish, and water levels will really come down.

6:48a Pamlico County Schools and Pamlico Community College are on a two hour delay this morning, due to weather.

The Cherry Branch / Minnesott Beach ferry is now back on normal schedule for the day.

What’s with the weather? It’s not windy, but there is rain. Since midnight, 8/10th of an inch has fallen (1.7 inches rained down Monday).

• Oriental NC Forecast
• Oriental Weather Station

It is wet out there – here is a weather radar run from 6:48a:

• Click here for live weather radar

Water levels still up, 2 ft above normal. They reached 2.6 ft high early Monday evening.

• Neuse River at Oriental Water Level Gauge

5:05p New high wind for the day: 42mph at 4:28p. And waters have snuck back up a bit. Now at 2.5 ft.

There will still be some wind & rain tonight, but that said, it’s au revoir for storm no-name. From the National Hurricane Center’s 5p update:

4:01p In the past couple hours, water levels are down a couple inches. No guarantees, but we may be near the peak from storm no-name.

They are now about 2.3 ft.

• Oriental NC Water Level Gauge

Highest wind today still 32 mph, recorded at 12:17p and again at 3:53p. There has been one inch of rain.

• Oriental NC Forecast
• Oriental Weather Station

2:12p This morning NHC had Potential Storm Eight at an 80% chance of forming. As of the 2p update, it is now 10%.

That’s a not too subtle way of saying, ain’t gonna happen.

Water levels are now at 2.42 ft above normal. Almost an inch of rain since midnight.

Storm no-name might not merit a t-shirt.

12:35p. It’s getting windy, and wet. High wind so far today, 32 mph at 12:17p.

Just over a half inch has come down since midnight. That will increase: at the moment, rain coming down hard.

• Oriental NC Forecast
• Oriental Weather Station
• Weather Radar
• Neuse River Marine Forecast

Water levels now at 2.33 ft above normal. The NOAA surge forecast is up to 3 ft. Based on where we are at now, it might sneak a bit higher than that.

• Oriental NC Water Level Gauge

10:11a The no-name storm is having some impact. From PCC:

9:02a Potential Numero Eight, could become Tropical Storm Helene. Or maybe not.

The latest from the National Hurricane Center:

Given the systems brief tenure, it won’t much matter here what it gets called. We’ll get some wind (gusts to 35) & some rain (3-4 inches).

• Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Tracking Chart
• Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Forecaster’s Discussion
• Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Public Advisory
• Hurricane Center

8:47a High winds & waters have shut down the ferry. From Cherry Branch:

The Pamlico County Board meets tonight, 7p.

6:45a A stormy~esque Monday is ahead. Windy, rainy. NOAA has reduced their rain prediction to 3-4 inches, still gusts in the 30s expected.

Water levels now 2.1 ft above normal.

It all happens today (gone Tuesday), from a storm system off the coast.

Scroll down and learn more.

5:14p That low off our coast is now Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight.

This may become Tropical Storm Helene on Monday. While the storm will make landfall at the South Carolina coast, we’ll get some weather too. Locally, the significant impact will be rain, 4 to 6 3 to 4 inches. Monday and Monday night, gusts to 35 mph.

• Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Tracking Chart
• Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Forecaster’s Discussion
• Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Public Advisory
• Hurricane Center

NOAA is calling for 1-3 feet of surge. We’re at 2 feet already – this is from brisk northeast winds on the Neuse and Pamlico Sound.

The Neuse marine forecast calls for 20-25 knots northeast tonight and Monday, 20-25 east Monday night. That will push up water levels further. Winds become southerly Tuesday – those water levels will go back down.

• Neuse River Marine Forecast
• Pamlico Sound Marine Forecast
• Neuse River at Oriental Water Level Gauge
• Weather Radar

8:00a The low pressure system off the SC/NC coast is now Invest 95 (an Invest is an area of disturbed weather being monitored for potential tropical system development).

There are now computer models. This isn’t an official NOAA/NHC track, but there is insight to be had. The black line is the mean of many models. Note ALL the models take the system south & west of us.

We’ll still get rained on – scroll down to see the forecast graphic below.

More info in the Hurricane Center.

7:12a Better go outside and look quick – the sun has appeared. It’s not totally cloudy.

Partly sunny this morning, but not for long. Clouds return for the afternoon.

Today might just provide enough pause in the wet to mow your lawn.