BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024
...MILTON EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...22.9N 95.1W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Celestun to Cancun
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cancun
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.
Hurricane and Storm Surge watches will likely be required for
portions of Florida late Sunday.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 95.1 West. Milton is
moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). An eastward
to east-northeastward motion is forecast during the next couple of
days, followed by a faster northeastward motion. On the forecast
track, Milton is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico and
approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during
the next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday
night, and it could become a major hurricane while it moves across
the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Milton can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals
up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to
moderate river flooding.
The system may also produce rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Milton, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm
Watch area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday.
SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast
of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected
to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by
early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi |