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OAA’s National Weather Service predicts a “below-normal” hurricane season for the Atlantic this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs June 1 to November 30, predicts a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a 55% chance of a below-normal season.

That would mean a total of 8-14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 3-6 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1-3 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher).

What’s an average season? Fourteen named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

Here are the 2026 storm names:

Those names from “F” to “I” have been trouble in our town. Like Isobel (2003, 9 ft surge), Irene (2011, 9’6” surge) and Florence (2018, 9’7” surge).

With Isobel and Irene the eye of the storm actually passed over Oriental. With Florence, the storm was just BIG… and slow. A slow hurricane means it hangs around, seemingly forever.

Weather radar of Hurricane Florence in 2018:

In 2025 there were 13 named storms, including five hurricanes, four of which were major. In 2025 they mostly stayed offshore, away from the US coast:

Hurricane season is June 1 – November 30. In the past, late August through the first 3 weeks of September has been peak season for potential storms visiting eastern North Carolina.

But will one visit here? For those that live on or near the coast, that is the measure.

TownDock tracks the hurricane season here:

• Hurricane Center

Posted Friday May 22, 2026 by Keith N. Smith