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Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby Forecaster's Discussion & Computer Models
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby Forecaster's Discussion # |
| A graphic showing several computer modeled projected tracks is at the bottom of this page. |
Tropical Depression Debby Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Debby continues to move farther inland and the center is now located over south-central North Carolina. The storm continues to produce heavy rains across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia, with the major flood threat continuing in those areas. Surface observations indicate that winds along the North Carolina coast and offshore have decreased, and based on that data, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt, making Debby a tropical depression. Although the sustained winds have decreased, there could still be some gusts to tropical-storm-force along portions of the North Carolina coast for a few more hours. The system is moving north-northwestward at 9 kt. A turn to the north or north-northeast and a significant increase in forward speed are expected. This motion will take Debby, or its remnants, across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States during the next day or so. Debby is likely to complete extratropical transition tonight or on Friday and dissipate in a couple of days. This is the last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center on Debby. Future information on this system can be found in discussions issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 1100 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov. Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to persist through today along with areas of considerable flooding. Heavy rainfall will also result in considerable to locally catastrophic flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States and Northeast through Saturday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 35.1N 80.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 09/0600Z 37.1N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1800Z 41.2N 76.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/0600Z 45.7N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1800Z 48.9N 62.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
The Forecaster's Discussion above often refers to several computer models. The graphic below includes multiple projected paths, showing what the different computer models indicate. The black line is the NHC (National Hurricane Center) path. This graphic is not an official NHC product. For the official NHC projected path of Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby click here.
click image for a larger view
For more information about tropical storm computer models click here.
