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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecaster's Discussion & Computer Models
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecaster's Discussion # |
| A graphic showing several computer modeled projected tracks is at the bottom of this page. |
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072026 200 PM CVT Fri Sep 25 2026 Gonzalo remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the deep convection located northeast of the elongated center. ASCAT data from around 1100 UTC revealed a large area of tropical-storm force winds located over the northeastern portion of the circulation with peak winds of around 45 kt. Those peak winds were the basis for increasing the intensity to 45 kt on the 1200 UTC intermediate advisory, and the initial intensity for this advisory remains unchanged. The initial motion estimate is north-northwest or 345/9 kt. A mid-level trough over the eastern Atlantic is expected to steer Gonzalo north-northwestward to northward today with the center passing near or over the easternmost Cabo Verde Islands. A north-northwestward heading should then continue over the weekend with some reduction in forward speed as the system weakens and becomes more vertically shallow. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies closest to the HFIP corrected consensus aid. Little change in strength is expected today as Gonzalo passes near or over the Cabo Verde Islands. The shear is forecast to increase to more than 30 kt later tonight and become even more belligerent over the weekend. This should cause weakening to begin by Saturday morning with a continued gradual spin down through the weekend. As the SSTs cool along the track and strong shear continues, the system is likely to lose organized deep convection by late Sunday or Sunday night and become post-tropical. The NHC intensity forecast is close to a blend of the Google Deep Mind and HFIP corrected consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands into tonight. 2. Heavy rains from Gonzalo could affect the eastern portions of the Cabo Verde Islands and the western coast of Africa between Guinea-Bissau to Senegal through Saturday. Areas of flash flooding will be possible along the Africa coasts with some isolated flash flood concerns for the eastern portions of Cabo Verde. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 15.1N 22.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 16.5N 22.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 18.1N 23.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 19.3N 23.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 20.3N 24.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 20.8N 24.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1200Z 21.3N 25.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1200Z 21.8N 25.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1200Z 22.2N 25.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown |
The Forecaster's Discussion above often refers to several computer models. The graphic below includes multiple projected paths, showing what the different computer models indicate. The black line is the NHC (National Hurricane Center) path. This graphic is not an official NHC product. For the official NHC projected path of Tropical Storm Gonzalo click here.
click image for a larger view
For more information about tropical storm computer models click here.
