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Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Forecaster's Discussion & Computer Models
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Forecaster's Discussion # |
| A graphic showing several computer modeled projected tracks is at the bottom of this page. |
Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 31 2025 Melissa no longer possesses organized convection, and is now merging with a warm front extending eastward and a cold front extending toward the southwest. Therefore, Melissa is now a post-tropical cyclone. Melissa still has hurricane-force winds, especially in the southeastern semicircle, as shown in Thursday evening ASCAT data and also shown in the latest global model fields for the current time of 15Z. The initial intensity is lowered slightly to 75 kt, mainly based on forecast continuity. Large swells from Melissa are spreading over much of the western Atlantic, resulting in hazardous marine conditions in this region. The post-tropical cyclone is racing northeastward, or 40 degrees at 42 kt. This motion should continue into Saturday within the flow ahead of an upper-level trough. Track guidance is in excellent agreement that the center of post-tropical Melissa will pass near, but to the southeast of, the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland late tonight, bringing the potential for some gusty winds and heavy rain. Later this weekend, Melissa is forecast to turn east-northeastward while interacting with a higher-latitude, upper-level low over the North Atlantic. Very little change has been made to the NHC track forecast, which lies very close to the average of the GFS and ECMWF deterministic models (GFEX). Global models indicate that Melissa will continue to be a large and strong extratropical cyclone for the next couple of days as it traverses the North Atlantic. Only gradual weakening is expected through the weekend, with the system forecast to have hurricane-force winds for another 24 h and still be a storm-force cyclone in 60 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is at the high end of the guidance suite through 60 hours. By early next week, global models show the large system weakening further as it begins to join up with a large and elongated area of low pressure over the far northeastern Atlantic, and the system should be absorbed and dissipated just beyond the 96-hour point. Key Messages: 1. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials and avoid areas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 39.0N 60.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 01/0000Z 43.5N 55.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/1200Z 49.4N 48.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 02/0000Z 53.2N 41.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/1200Z 55.0N 35.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 03/0000Z 56.2N 29.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/1200Z 57.5N 24.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/1200Z 60.5N 16.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen |
The Forecaster's Discussion above often refers to several computer models. The graphic below includes multiple projected paths, showing what the different computer models indicate. The black line is the NHC (National Hurricane Center) path. This graphic is not an official NHC product. For the official NHC projected path of Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa click here.
click image for a larger view
For more information about tropical storm computer models click here.
