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Tropical Storm Edouard Forecaster's Discussion & Computer Models
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Tropical Depression Edouard Forecaster's Discussion # |
| A graphic showing several computer modeled projected tracks is at the bottom of this page. |
Tropical Depression Edouard Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052026 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026 Edouard has remained well-organized in radar imagery as it moves farther inland over southeastern Texas. However, the convective cloud tops near the center are gradually, if unsteadily warming, and Doppler wind velocities near the center have decreased during the last hour or so. Based on this, it is estimated that Edouard has weakened to a tropical depression. It should be noted that there have been no reports of winds or pressures from the storm core area after it passed Beaumont, Texas. Continued weakening is expected as the center moves farther inland, and the dynamical guidance suggests that the surface center should dissipate between 18-36 h. The intensity forecast thus calls for the system to last 24 h before dissipation. Edouard is moving northwestward or 315/7 kt and will remain on this heading through early Wednesday, bringing the center farther inland over eastern Texas. This general motion should continue until the surface center dissipates. This is the last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in discussions issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 400 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov. Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php . Key Messages: 1. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are likely near the center of Edouard for the next several hours. 2. Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through east-central Texas into far Southwest Louisiana through Thursday morning as Edouard continues to track inland. Flash flooding is likely across this region, especially in urban areas. Significant flash flooding is possible. River flooding may also be possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 30.5N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 02/1200Z 31.2N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 03/0000Z 32.2N 95.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
The Forecaster's Discussion above often refers to several computer models. The graphic below includes multiple projected paths, showing what the different computer models indicate. The black line is the NHC (National Hurricane Center) path. This graphic is not an official NHC product. For the official NHC projected path of Tropical Depression Edouard click here.
click image for a larger view
For more information about tropical storm computer models click here.
