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Post-Tropical Cyclone Karen Forecaster's Discussion & Computer Models
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Hurricane Karina Forecaster's Discussion # |
| A graphic showing several computer modeled projected tracks is at the bottom of this page. |
Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026 Surface observations indicated that the center of Arthur re-formed near Galveston around 21-22Z in response to an offshore convective burst. Since that time, there has been no organized convection near the center, and the circulation has become elongated along the Upper Texas coast. Based on these developments, and the expectation that organized convection will not reform near the center, Arthur is no longer a tropical cyclone and is being downgraded to a post-tropical low with 30 kt winds. While the motion is a bit uncertain due to the center reformation, it appears that the system is starting to move a bit faster toward the northeast with the initial motion estimated at 040/8 kt. A general northeastward motion is expected until the surface center dissipates tonight over southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana. After that, the remnants of Arthur should move east- northeastward across the southeastern United States and emerge into the Atlantic on Friday. A continued east-northeastward motion out to sea is expected thereafter. As mentioned, the surface center of Arthur is expected to dissipate later tonight. The global models suggest that the surface center could reform near the Atlantic coast on Friday, with some intensification possible as the system moves out to sea. It is unclear at this time whether this re-development will be due to tropical cyclone processes or baroclinic process. However, marine gale warnings are being issued for portions of the western Atlantic in anticipation of this development. Even though Arthur is no longer a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will continue to be a major hazard for the next few days across the southeastern United States. There is also an increased tornado threat for portions of the southeastern U.S. through Thursday. That is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Rainfall forecasts for the remnants of Arthur in the United States can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php . Marine forecasts, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Potentially life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding are likely through Friday across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. Scattered minor river flooding is expected, with the potential for isolated moderate to major river flooding. Ongoing heavy rainfall could prolong the flood threat through the weekend. 2. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force could occur along portions of the Louisiana coast tonight. 3. Coastal flooding along the coasts of Texas and Louisiana should gradually subside later tonight and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 29.7N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
The Forecaster's Discussion above often refers to several computer models. The graphic below includes multiple projected paths, showing what the different computer models indicate. The black line is the NHC (National Hurricane Center) path. This graphic is not an official NHC product. For the official NHC projected path of Hurricane Karina click here.
click image for a larger view
For more information about tropical storm computer models click here.
